Stockchase Opinions

Eric Nuttall Gear Energy GXE-T BUY Aug 12, 2022

Has made large returns on the company and sold shares, but still believes in company. Trading at ~1.9x cash flow and 29% free cash flow yield. Believes company has good management that is executing good capital allocation. Expecting a 4x multiple on the share price.
$1.340

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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BUY
Very similar to Cardinal energy. Better names out there with large inventory. Quality company that is returning capital to shareholders. Trading at slight discount to peers.
BUY

Small player in energy space ($270 MM market cap).
Believes dividend is sustainable (~11% yield).
Not many large funds buying.
China re-opening will increase oil price and lift share price.
Good for retail investor.


DON'T BUY
Cut dividend by 50%.

It was fashionable to have a flashy dividend, but then energy prices were weaker than people thought. A company should never cut its base dividend.

HOLD

Small energy company (prefers larger companies).
Stock performance done well the past year.
Strong dividend.
Likes WCP and Headwater Exploration more.

HOLD

Small energy stock that is "for sale".
Recent cut of dividend not good.
Company hoping to take advantage of higher oil prices in order to sell.
Company cheap, but so are other (better) names in sector.

DON'T BUY

Seeking strategic alternatives for the second time, aka "looking for a buyer". Dividend is not sustainable. Trading at 2.2x, so a premium on a sale is possible. If no sale, dividend will resize.

PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The stock is cheap, and the balance sheet is fine, and it is not without potential. It still pays its (lowered) dividend. It is buying back stock. We would not consider it a disaster, but it is a small company, in a struggling sector, with negative momentum, and annoyed investors (no sale and the dividend cut). The numbers are not hugely reassuring. But a sector rally would likely still move it nicely. It is up 3% YTD despite all the news. We think we would 'target' it for a sale as new ideas show up--i.e. use it a source of cash. But we do not think a sale has to be rushed, immediate, or full. Depending on one's risk profile, a small position could still be kept. 
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DON'T BUY

He thinks their CEO is resigning and they cut their dividend, though trades at 2x cash flow 2025. Balance sheet is fine. But there's a lot of noise here, and investors are looking elsewhere.

DON'T BUY

Right-sized the dividend by 50%, which alienated a lot of investors. The base dividend should never be cut, and most quality companies will base that on a very low, defendable oil price. 19% free cashflow yield. Value trap. Can't see a catalyst.

DON'T BUY

Company share price is reflective of lack in interest in small energy names (market cap too small). Company needs to sell itself in order to generate value. Better options for investors out there.