The Monthly Gems by Allan Tong
GlaxoSmithKline PLC
GSK-N
TOP PICK
Feb 12, 2020
Why bother with the U.K? The British stock market remains one of the strongest in the world and actually matched the TSX's performance in the 30 months after the pivotal June 2016 referendum (the FTSE fell off in 2019). Where to invest? Forget the British banks. They're already slumping, burdened by near-zero interest rates. Better to look at a long-term investment like GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), traded in New York as well as London. Robert Lauzon warns that a hard Brexit would pressure the UK pound and, by extension, GSK's bottom line, though he considers the pharma company fine overall with its dividend at 4.27% (New York) or 5.16% (London). GSK spun-off a US$12.7 billion consumer healthcare company with Pfizer to refocused on pharmaceuticals and growth. Paul McDonald views this is a likely long-term asset. Since September, four analysts have upgraded GSK, three of them to a buy. Like so many British stocks, GSK faces post-Brexit risk, but it's worth considering for the long run.
Good business, but better opportunities out there. Attractive dividend yield. Not investing in business at this time. Hard to evaluate R&D pipeline. Would look elsewhere.
Big pharmas are all under pressure, growth is hard to come by and so they're cost-cutting. All have lots of free cashflow and reasonable dividend yields. He prefers JNJ.
Vaccine discoveries good for business. Does not own shares at this time. Market for pharmaceuticals separating between strong and weak players. Current share price fairly valued.
Buy drug stocks when there's no good news about their drug pipelines, or else you pay up when there is good news, in which case it becomes a trade, not investment.
This large global biopharma company has reported continued success in a oncology based treatment for a blood cancer effecting 180,000 new patients annually. The company is building cash reserves while debt is retired. It trades at 22x earnings and supports a 21% ROE. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $27, looking to achieve $45 -- upside potential of 26%. Yield 4.5%
We reiterate GSK as a TOP PICK. We like that cash reserves are holding steady, despite an aggressive retirement of debt. It trades at 22x earnings and supports a 18% ROE. The solid dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 50% of cash flow. The company is partnering with another pharma to develop Parkinson's disease treatments. We continue to recommend a stop at $27, looking to achieve $41 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 4.6%
(A Top Pick Jan 16/25, Up 21.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly
Our PAST TOP PICK with GSK has achieved its target at $41. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and maintaining the stop at $32.
Their vaccine division suffers from the general dismay over vaccines in the US (so does Merck), but accounts for only a third of its business. Ongoing trials could put them back in the race in drugs vs. peers. Expects the sentiment overhang to persist in vaccines.