Alphabet IncGOOGBUYDec 17, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 10, 2026. Market Open.
Fears that AI would eat its lunch. Harder for Anthropic to monetize a new tool than for GOOG to take AI and apply it to a business model that it already monetizes. Muscle memory of the populace gravitates to GOOG to find information. Probably thrives in the new AI world, until something more disruptive comes along.
AI monetization is happening, and AI Mode has been a game changer. Stronger cloud growth (revenue grew 63% YOY last quarter, tremendous), broader monetization across platforms. Search and advertising remain strong, lots of cashflow. Also a great ecosystem.
Good growth, but relatively decent valuation. Yield is 0.25%.
A year ago, consensus was that Search was going to die. Seems ridiculous now. Gemini is overtaking ChatGPT. Data centre business is growing faster than before. Still not that expensive. He hasn't sold any shares yet, but may take some off the table from the long-term holding and put toward one of the Mag 7 laggards.
Hasn’t really done very much over the last year. Expectations on the street were fairly high. This company doesn’t give guidance. They are quite independent that way. However, he likes that because he sees a lot of companies giving guidance. If they miss by just a hair, the street reacts very violently; this encourages people to micromanage over short periods. These are long-term assets and have to be viewed that way. Thinks that in 2015 this company is going to do good things. Earnings are probably going to rise in the mid to high 20%s, revenues probably in the 18% range. Trading at less than 20X earnings.