Patrick HoranGeneral MillsGISSELLMar 25, 2014

The younger generation is much more aware of the ingredients in their good than past generations. This is not good for GIS, long term. Doesn't see revenue growth.

Technical pattern very weak. 200-day MA falling for quite some time (since 2023!), price is well below that. Appears to be facing earnings decline of ~8% for next few years.

Not even a value play -- for that, you need a low PE but also some growth.

These consumer names will recover, but doesn't know when. We're in a value trap now where a cheap stock could stay cheaper for longer than we like. Isn't worried about it and sees value in it. Pays a decent dividend.

Tastes are changing. These businesses are very hard. The only consumer staples he owns are COST and KO.

Rising prices in the food prep services industry are seeing a lot of inflation due to higher fertilizer costs (caused by the Iran war), but this is a temporary phase. A good time to buy this.

Inflation is killing them: input costs and food costs too much. They need to sacrifice margins and cut their prices.

At 13X forward earnings for a staples company and with a long-term outlook, we think an investor will do fine with General Mills (GIS). However, there is not much growth at the business currently and we think an investor can wait a bit for some better positive momentum before getting too serious with with a name like this.
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They put up weak numbers and shares slid 5% today. Consumer packaged goods are sector to avoid.

They make hugely popular cereals, very sugary, and so they could be a target of RFK Jr.'s health department. It yields 4.5%, the same as the 10-year T-bond, but that's still not enough to offset regulatory risk.

Pays a 4% yield and is cheap at these prices. He thinks the health secretary is dead set against the weight-loss drugs, so will benefit GIS.

Was upgraded today based on accelerating pet food sales. It reports Wednesday. He thinks that the incoming Health & Human Services Secretary, Robert Kennedy, will promote healthy eating, which clashes with GM's money-making sugary cereals.

They report Wednesday. They just sold their North American yogurt business for $2.1 billion, while their snacks and pet food visions are strong. The stock is a bargain now.

It reports Wednesday. He suspects shares have been out of fears of the new weight-loss drugs eating into their snack-food sales. That said, every package food company that has reported has reported no slowdown, and those stocks rallied. GIS also had a good pet food business.

They report Wednesday; can they turn things around after sales faltered last quarter? Their high-end pet food business has stalled and Zoetis revealed that pet spending is slowing.

Their outlook is dimming as the wider economy weakens, and they're shifting to more value-oriented products for pets. He thought pet food was a more reliable product category but now this is can be slippery.