Stockchase Opinions

Lyle Stein Gibson Energy GEI-T COMMENT May 09, 2017

You are basically looking at key infrastructure assets, that will do very, very well as we continue to expand the oil sands, tank storage in particular. Those are crucial assets that would be very, very difficult to replace. There are better names to own in the area, in between the pipeline and the producer. The dividend is high, and they are going to have to grow into that. At this stage, he thinks you can find companies that have already done the growing of the dividend.

$18.590

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

Broken out to new highs. Really likes the setup, great chart. Fundamental analyst on his team likes this name as well. Yield is 6.87%.

(Analysts’ price target is $26.17)
DON'T BUY

Would lean away from company. Large portion of EBITDA comes from marketing - not take or pay contracts (guaranteed income). Better options for midstream investors like Pembina. 

BUY

We're all trying to figure out which stocks tariffs will either impact or leave unscathed. There's a thirst for natural gas, and we need to get it offshore as part of the bridge to totally clean energy. A good choice for new $$ now.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Up 7%)

(Note the short timeframe.) Great chart, continues to work. Still likes it.

COMMENT

Is one of his largest holdings. It's had a rough week. Their infrastructure business stores oil in Alberta and Texas, and they have a marketing business. The latter has been weak and volatile. The dividend is sustainable; cash flow covers it. Is not worried about tariffs.

BUY

An opportunity, as it just sold off on marketing segment.

Growth estimates of pipelines have really gone up in past few months with nat gas prices going higher. More throughput looking likely on Trans Mountain. More incentive in Canada to talk about moving oil East-West and North-South.

DON'T BUY

Some upside potential as measured by FMV, perhaps 28%. Has set back to technical support. Overall chart for 10 years shows a company whose balance sheet is slowly, slowly eroding. Balance sheet quality is OK, but doesn't make his socks roll up and down. Nice dividend, but not covered for the next 12 months.

BUY

Likes the stock and the whole energy infrastructure space. It's a place you can hang out along with gold and yield plays. Doesn't get a lot of respect from the market. Q4 saw a market loss, but that's only 11% of NAV. 

Raised dividend by 5%. Baytex deal is accretive by ~1% to stable, long-term cashflows. Likes the infrastructure growth shown in Q4. Strong balance sheet, decent payout ratio, very high dividend. Cheap at 11.7x PE for 2027, and modelling ~14% EPS growth.

WATCH

Name to look at in the same space as FTS, but at a much better valuation.

DON'T BUY

It is shown as a sell. Its overall free cash flow of 2.5% is modest but standard. Look elsewhere for total investment opportunities in this sector, eg. Imperial Oil.