Opinions
Tim Nash
First Solar Inc.
FSLR-Q
WEAK BUY
Jul 20, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentPremium contentWith demand for solar generation continuing to grow we reiterate FLSR as a TOP PICK. It is uniquely aided by US government protectionist policies against competition from China. It trades at 24x earnings and 3.5x book while supporting a 16% ROE. We also like that cash reserves are growing well and that analysts project a growth in EPS over 50% for the year. We continue to recommend a stop at $210, looking to achieve $290 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $290.16)EPS of $3.25 beat estimates of $2.66; revenue of $1.01B beat estimates of $940M. Guidance was for EPS $13.00 to $14.00 (unchanged), vs estimates $13.60. It was a good quarter, and the company remains debt-free with $1.2B cash and strong EPS growth prospects over the next two years. However, election uncertainty does seem to be impacting customer bookings, and this may hurt the next two quarters until solar policies are clarified. But fundamentals ex-this factor are quite good, and it remains the leader in the sector, for sure.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with FSLR has triggered its stop at $2100. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 15%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
Premium contentFirst solar (nasdaq: fslr) is a leading global provider of comprehensive photovoltaic (pv) solar systems which use its advanced thin-film modules. the company’s integrated power plant solutions deliver an economically attractive alternative to fossil-fuel electricity generation today. from raw material sourcing through end-of-life module collection and recycling, first solar’s renewable energy systems protect and enhance the environment. Social media mentions are up 300% in the past 24h.
Was a past pick of his. Shares have been bumpy for fears that Trump will impose tariffs on solar panels and he doesn't like green energy, though there's bi-partisan support for solar energy. FSLR is the only real option for the US, so FSLR is a fine position. Shares will be bumpy thought. Buy for the long term.
The US is pushing away from solar energy. He bought it because they were a US-domestic supplier of panels. There was an oversupply in China which drove prices down. He was counting on the domestic supplier being protected from foreign producers. This didn't happen. Today, there is a Senate proposal to end tax incentives for solar, and those shares are sliding. He sold shares in February--he saw it coming. It's hard to admit defeat, but you have to.
Biggest name in North American market. Got nailed twice. First, during the crash. Then, because China went big into the solar panel market, at subsidized prices. There will be growth in sales, but price of solar panels will drop dramatically. If you’re willing to ride it out for the long term, this can do very well. But you’ll have to be patient. Potential for dramatic technological change in this area. Be a little bit cautious about the technology risk.