Stockchase Opinions

Doren Quinton Fortress Global Enterprises Inc FGE-T TOP PICK Mar 19, 2008

Produces security and specialty paper (Bank notes, Visa paper, etc). Very strong fundamentally. Not very well know.
$7.650

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

They are dynamic and determined. Have done some wonderful purchases of the plants. Using pulp to manufacture rayon. The swing on this stock in the downward direction is very much tied into the pricing of cotton, which seems to be one of the most violent commodities. Very difficult one to gauge at the moment.

WAIT

Cautious on this one. They have 3 basic businesses including dissolving pulp, a mill in Germany that makes wallpaper and a mill that makes paper for currency. 2 of them are not doing particularly well. Dissolving pulp is not bearing fruit yet and the currency paper mill is having some struggles. Too many irons in the fire and needs time to pull it all together.w

WATCH

There is a probably a recognition trade for the next week or two. Would not touch it yet and then there could be tax loss session so study it then.

WATCH

Deep in the penalty box. Problem is that the company has disappointed. Printing side has had a tough time. Need 2-4 months of operation and a strong stomach on this one. Company has incredible torque and leverage to dissolving pulp prices. People aren’t confident in the CEO.

DON'T BUY

Great idea but there was a lot of execution risks that came into the name. Things that were going to happen in a quarter were pushed back, plants that were supposed to perform at a certain level performed at lower levels, etc., etc. Management is doing their best to turn it around but there are now some very big execution questions over the company.

COMMENT

In the penalty box. Had problems getting on track with their dissolving pulp plant in Québec. Just hired a new manager of the plant, which the market likes. Suspects the wallpaper facility in Dresden Germany and the printing facility in Switzerland are both up for sale. If they sell the Dresden plant, it could probably fetch $200-$300 million, which would pay off all debt. Have to show a couple of quarters of consistency.

WATCH

Has been in a 2+ year downtrend which may be breaking right now. He likes to buy after a base breakout. It is attempting to base. If it breaks out then he would buy. There may be a case for trading it right now.

WATCH

We had support but now it has broken it. He needs to see something good happen before stepping in. It could be a value trap.

HOLD

Facility in Quebec has had its problems. Sold their Dresden facility at a fair price. They are making a lot of corrections to what is going on. A lot of good things are happening but it is a show-me stock. He is going to stick with it and see what happens.

DON'T BUY

This company is not attractive to him.