Stockchase Opinions

Ashley Misquitta, CFA FedEx FDX-N DON'T BUY Oct 16, 2019

Buy during negative sentiment? Moodys just upgraded FedEx. Global trade is under pressure, so that's a headwind. Also, Amazon could very well build their own delivery network for certain parts of their operation. They manage to build AWS, in comparison. So, Amazon is a greater worry to FedEx. So, he's cautious about FedEx.

$150.770

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

DON'T BUY

It's underperformed UPS, but shares have recovered a lot this year due to new management. Merging fleet and air operations helped by lowering costs. They have problems with overseas margins. Prefers Cargojet.

COMMENT

It reports Thursday. They're working hard to reduce costs and improve gross margins. This is a nervous period for them because of the coming holiday season.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 7%)

He sold it at $295 recently. Loves the company, but earnings revisions came down. He bought at $262. He may re-buy it if the price and valuation are right. FedEx is a dominant player and the management team proves they can execute. The founder family still owns a lot of shares, and such families don't make crazy decision to preserve their stake. Also, cost savings and a huge share buyback are plusses. Also, they have fewer unionized employees than UPS.

DON'T BUY

Dominated by international and air freight. Today, he'd lean toward a domestic provider like UPS.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It doesn't do anything with Amazon, contrary to rumours. Shares are down 5% in the past week, but the CEO is doing a fine job. 

COMMENT
But this dip now or wait for their report

The CEO is doing a fine job in a very difficult time with all these tariffs. A very good company though can't advise buying a stock that went up 10% today [note: the wider market was up 10% too].

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Down 13%)

He sold in November but still likes it a lot and has put it on their potential buy list if it gets to their price. There is concern over a drop-off in demand.

WATCH

It reported last night. Their B2B has been stuck in neutral, though B2C is okay. FedEx missed numbers, but they have cut costs. The price now is an opportunity, but won't rally until we see how the tariffs shake-out. FDX depends alot on cross-border shipping.

DON'T BUY

It reports Thursday. Is being downgraded now that Chinese packages no longer have that exemption.

BUY

Last night, they reported a surprisingly good quarter, so shares jumped 2.3%. It has struggled since summer 2024 and especially during the tariff spring of 2025. Is still -17.6% this year and has been downgraded recently. Total revenue is +3% YOY, driven by core FedEx express business. Adjusted EPS easily beat and issued a positive full-year forecast. They raised revenue growth outlook. Cutbacks, like removing stations and pick-up times, (Network 2.0) is cutting costs without angering customers. Also, are making their European business more efficiency with more productivity. He sees more upside, though is a little cautious due to tariffs. FedEx has done very well navigating this tricky economy. Trades at under 13x PE, cheap. Pays a safe 2.5% dividend.