Stock price when the opinion was issued
Where will supply shift? This year, the Canadian E&Ps are outproducing all other international E&Ps, including Europe, US or Australia. He also bought ENB, which delivers the crude oil to the US. The US refiners have an insatiable need for Canadian oil. There's a 10% tariff on Canadian oil. Well, guess what--the Canadian oil companies are not eating the tariff, but rather the US refiners. If there's a shift in supply (given Mideast tensions), Canada will be able to supply that oil. US energy companies have a -12% earnings estimate this year vs. Canadian energy of only -0.20%
If the leading sectors in the market are those that would benefit from a more inflationary environment (financials, materials, industrials, some energy), and they are, you want to look at the groups that are not. Things that act like bonds (utilities, staples, REITs, pipelines) are underperforming.
It could be that people piled into defensives in April, but they just haven't performed. So with other groups that are economically sensitive performing, the defensive groups are being used as a source of cash. Great dividend, and that will grow mid-single digits. He'd rather be leaning towards hedging against inflation than disinflation (which is where a pipeline would come in).
The thing about this one is that the call premiums can often be weighed down by dividends. So if you're going to sell calls on something with a higher dividend, and it's a lower-volatility name, you can expect the option premium to be small. Not something he'd do, as it has a pretty good yield already of 6-7%.
Banks look to be extended, but pipelines seem to be reaccelerating (TRP, ENB). Given his view about a potential correction coming soon, doesn't mind rotating a bit out of BMO and putting some into ENB. Likes the breakout, and thinks it's more defensive-related, not energy-related.
If you look at the Commitment of Traders data (published every Friday), commercial hedges (considered the "smart money") have been hedging crude oil less (which means they've been going longer). Something interesting is happening there.
Decent growth profile, 7.5% dividend, and the Canadian dividend tax credit. Valuation has been fair. Trading at mid-teen PEs, contrasted to TRP with a 12.5x valuation.