Dow Inc. (Formerly Dow Chemical) (DOW-N) (DOW)

Up 78% in Q1 and one of the best performers on the S&P. It started to rise early this year because the market expected many interest rate cuts this year. Then, it went up because of petrochemical shortages caused by the Iranian government. LYB is at a risk of a pullback before the war ends. Maybe, maybe not.

It still needs the Chinese buyers to come back. It's had a good run, up 43% over 3 months because people want to buy the cyclicals. Take profits.

Not sure it's going to rally the way AT&T did. Very different sectors. In his modelling, he's been in accumulation mode. Likes it at these levels on a risk/return basis, screens well for value. High yield is probably a risk factor at this point. Not a lot of upside potential to analysts' price target.

It's near-9% dividend yield is too big. Something is awry here.

Like the other chemical companies, DOW is trading as if they are just calls on China turning around. This is wrong to do.

It's broken. When a stock's broken support, you don't want to buy it.

It's tied to China, like all materials stocks are, and those stock keep going down. Don't touch this until at least January.

Still sells at 20x PE. Estimates keep going down, because of China--stocks that have any association with China tend to hurt. That said, if this stock reaches a 7% dividend yield, you must buy.

The best time to buy this is right now, at the start of rate-cutting, which will boost housing and products associating with home-building like appliances and carpets which require chemicals. Also, China's stimulus is a boost to cyclicals levered to China's economy.

Shares popped last Friday on hopes that China's stimulus plans can boost Dow, a stock that has been slumping lately.