Opinions
Peter Hodson
Dollarama Inc.
DOL-T
COMMENT
Dec 15, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Still adding for new clients. Key has been that it has very little competition, unlike US counterparts. You pay up for that position, at 35x forward PE, but you get 15% earnings growth going forward.
Beneficiary of cumulative effects of inflation and uncertainty in Canadian economy. Recession-resilient business model. Outpaced the TSX since its IPO in 2009.
Wouldn't buy now. Has benefited from the economic uncertainty, and so valuation has come up dramatically. North of 35x PE, so risk that could contract over the long term. Wonderful business, well positioned with price points to capture a larger portion of wallets in tough times.
Last conference call referenced a small impact from sourcing from China, with the hit to margins yet to be seen.
Great numbers yesterday, as well as an all-time high. Still likes it. Canadians continue to downshift spending into more affordable channels. 60% of sales from private labels, which increases margins and differentiates themselves from competitors (not that there are many). International expansion into Dollar City in Latin America is good for long-term growth.
Premium valuation of 41x forward earnings. Sees 15% growth. To add, wait for better pricing opportunity.
In his firm's Canadian dividend growth strategy portfolio. Not a great dividend, though it does grow. Focused more on inorganic growth and share buybacks. Almost AMZN-proof, scale gives them buying power. In Canada, topline is growing close to 10%, margins are improving. Trades at over 40x next year's earnings, so wise to trim.
Investors have considered this as ridiculously expensive for 10 years now. Everyone talks about the valuation, and meanwhile they continue to grow and continue to execute well. They continue to increase their market share and continue to make investors money. He likes it quite a lot and has just added it to one of his portfolios. At some point they will hit the saturation limit in Canada, and are starting to make inroads into other countries. At some point, a larger entity will probably come in, in order to take over the Canadian dollar market, and guess who they are going to buy. A really good opportunity over the next 3-4 years. As a growth story, this is one of the best in Canada.