Stock price when the opinion was issued
A lot going on here in recent years, but just a few years ago, the stock was nearly doubled, based on hopes for Disney+. That said, they will be a long-term winner in streaming; their content is strong around the world. Also, their theme parks keep selling, and are expanding internationally. Probably we've seen peak Marvel, but Disney holds a deep catalogue of content, including Star Wars. If they can sort out management and make streaming profitable, they should return to 20% margins.
Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.
Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.
Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.
It reports Wednesday. Hurricanes impacted last quarter and the LA wildfires could impact the forecast in this quarter. But all else is hitting on all cyclinders incuding linear TV. Could be putting recent weakness behind them, and shares are historically cheap.