Stockchase Opinions

Jenny Harrington, CEO, Gilman Hill Asset Management Walt Disney Co. DIS-N PARTIAL BUY Jul 14, 2023

Credit Suisse today cut the price target to $126, which means 40% upside. Their media business is worth $60 billion vs. Netflix's $210 billion, a massive valuation gap. Disney is like New York City. Both can be down at times, but you're foolish to bet against them. They can get past this rough patch by creating great content while people will flock to their amusement parks. It could take 3-4 years before Disney returns to previous levels, so be patient. Yes, the actors and strikes are concerns, but are short-term.

$89.050

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY

After some management turnover, it's finally getting its feet right. He likes a lot of what the current CEO is doing.

DON'T BUY

Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.

BUY

Is up 7% YTD and 20% the past year. The stock is breaking out. It set a 52-week high last week.

COMMENT

Though a streamer like NFLX, they are in very different businesses. The opportunity in DIS is their succession plan which should be a positive catalyst. 

BUY

Is up 19% in the last 3 months. Trades at 19x PE, a decent discount to the market, 13-16% earnings growth, movies have rebounded and theme parks are doing well. A great company. 

BUY

You can't compare this to Netflix, because they have different drivers. Their movies and theme parks (up 9% this year) are doing well.

SELL
Resumed dividend in 2023.

Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.

BUY

It reports Wednesday. He thinks Disney+ will be good, sports TV is getting better, theme parks will continue to him while cruises will continue to make a ton of money.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 27/24, Up 18%)

Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.

BUY

It's been consolidating and has to outperform earnings to break out which he expects, given strong theme parts and streaming. It's neither cheap or pricey at 20x PE.