Stock price when the opinion was issued
Spike in stock is due to fears of an economic slowdown being put at bay. Theme parks are expanding, but will depend on macro environment. ESPN is more challenged. Disney+ is challenged because NFLX is beating everybody. Paying 20x PE for 12-13% growth. Doesn't dislike the name, but some segments are having a tough go.
Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.
Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.
Credit Suisse today cut the price target to $126, which means 40% upside. Their media business is worth $60 billion vs. Netflix's $210 billion, a massive valuation gap. Disney is like New York City. Both can be down at times, but you're foolish to bet against them. They can get past this rough patch by creating great content while people will flock to their amusement parks. It could take 3-4 years before Disney returns to previous levels, so be patient. Yes, the actors and strikes are concerns, but are short-term.