Walt Disney Co.DISBUYFeb 13, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Has become the victim of a sort of new wokeism, which alienated a big chunk of consumers. He sold. Challenge is the franchise is one of a kind, but management keeps making mistakes.
Inexpensive here, if you have a long horizon. Reasonable value, but no immediate catalyst. Business is good, it just needs to find the next CEO with the right vision; when they get that right, the stock will move.
It's a good company, doing the right things. People still want to go their theme parks and cruise ships. Their streamer is doing a good job, taking the baton from linear TV. The stock looks like 2021 during the pandemic. Revenues and EPS are growing above 10% in each of the next two years, is trading at 14x PE and a dividend growing like crazy. But not it's uncomfortable to hold this stock, but you will be rewarded if you are patient.
You have to appreciate its brand power. Does something that no one else in the world can or does, and they do it very well. Lots of avid fans.
That said, not sure its valuation is merited. Cost of running theme parks is very high, and probably getting higher. In an economic slowdown, people may not pay those prices. Media assets are in constant competition. He's a value investor. Wait for a pullback.
Streaming turned profitable by end of 2024, finally, after a reorganization, and is now a major growth driver. Theme parks have been the largest profit generator and they keep coming out with new parks; people are paying high amounts to enjoy them. He expects healthy earnings to come. They will announce a deal between their ESPN and the NFL--sports drives huge profits. Everything is going right, but they need to appoint a successor to Bob Iger.
Mixed feelings. On the positive side, doing exceptionally well in streaming with a great library and great branding. Cross-sells better than anyone. Worried about the parks in the short term -- consumer slowdown, expecting global backlash against the US. Hard to bet against its 6-decade growth story for the long term. Balance sheet in fine shape, decent cashflow. Yield is 0.8%.
The company will grow with its launch of ESPN to the consumer and then Disney to the consumer. At the end of 2018, they will not stream through Netflix and will instead stream their content directly to the consumer. If the acquisition of FOX goes through, this will also increase the content they have available to stream. Their parks are doing well, Shanghai is doing very well. Traffic is good and their are raising prices. Their movie studio is also doing well, which drives the success of their retail products. The stock valuation is trading only at 13 or 14x forward earnings, and the tax package will increase their free cash, which they can use to improve their parks.