Nicholas Sargen Deere & Co. DE-N TOP PICK Aug 13, 2004

He expects a weak quarter on Thursday. Share prices are falling due to farmer incomes, which should turn around. Price crops should increase. Deere has controlled inventory.

We need better ag machines to feed the world, ever-demanding more food, and Deere is front and center of that. They use big data to reduce crop nutrients, so they are on the leading edge of farming. Is a little concerned about their financing. But this is good the next 5-10 years.

Long-term chart demonstrates the excellent business and operations. We all need to eat. Focus going forward will be autonomous farming vehicles -- it will sell software to farmers as well as equipment. Valuation will ebb and flow with food and commodity prices, as well as the economy. He stays away from commodity-type businesses.

They host an analyst meeting Tuesday and he expect them to tell a great story about farmer orders. It can go higher.

Is a heavy cyclical, depending on farm incomes and commodity prices, which you can't predict. DE equipment isn't cheap, so farmers must be confident enough to buy it. It's been difficult to predict. He's done okay with it before, but other sectors are more predictable.