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Cequence Energy Ltd.CQE.TOTOP PICKMar 13, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
(A Top Pick July 16/14. Down 64.82%.) He liked everything they had going, but as redemptions rolled in, he had to make a decision as to what to remove and what to keep. Just announced a transaction that makes a lot of sense. Have consolidated their interest in the Simonet field and have sold part of the facilities. That will allow them to carry out some CapX. This is a name that he will look at again.
If you are not a bull on natural gas, which he is not, this company’s wells historically have had a pretty low liquids cut given were they are in the deep basin. If you compare this to some other companies, you are much more reliant on the price of natural gas to determine your payback. Unless they come out with some boomer wells, he is really challenged to come up with a Buy thesis.
This was criticized for having 2 great assets. Sold one of them because no one believed they had the capital to develop both. They paid down all their debt and are now sitting with a great play at Simonette. This has multizone opportunity and they have infrastructure in place. They have gas gathering systems, processing capabilities, etc. Now they just have to throw some capital at it. He is very excited about how they can be looking 12 months out. With roughly 10,000-11,000 BOE’s a day, they may probably touch 15,000 this year, there is plenty of drilling opportunity left. Thinks it can be a 20,000 BOE a day producer. He loves the story. A target price of $1.50-$1.75 would not be unreasonable.
(His 3 Top Picks are all based on continuing strength in natural gas prices.) Has recently been drilling some very good wells in the Wilrich where they are partnered with Bonavista (BNP-T). As well there are more results out of their delineation of their Simonette properties both to the West and to the North. If those are successful in the next month or so, that will show that their Simonette has actually more scale to it. Has been a laggard in the market, but is finally getting a little respect. Thinks the upside is $3 a share. Canada Pension Plan’s recent investment gave it a very strong stamp of approval.