Costco Wholesale CorporationCOSTBUY ON WEAKNESSMar 10, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Last Thursday they reported a healthy top and bottom line beat, 15% earnings growth, worldwide membership renewals increased to 89%, executive memberships doubled to a record level, now accounting for 75.6% of all sales. But total membership growth slowed again. Membership under age 40 has grown nearly 60% since Covid. Web business, small appliances, home furnishings are growing. He hasn't a convincing story from management about how to get younger customers who signed up online to renew. Trades at 40x PE.
World's third-largest retailer. High traffic, repeat business, superior same-store sales growth in high single digits. Likes the recurring membership fees, with ~92% retention rate. Likes the procurement clout and narrow assortment of goods. Pretty good gross margins of 11%, and ~30% ROE.
Seems to trade at a high multiple, and this scares people. But it's compounded at 17-18% since the IPO in 1985. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.64%.
Has traded at a high valuation pretty much since it went public. Good luck trying to pick a perfect valuation entry point. He invests in companies that can invest cashflows at high rates of return over decades. Stealing market share from low- and middle-end grocery stores. Adding services, such as Medicare plans in the US. Same-store sales growth 7-8% a year.
Deserves to trade at a high multiple because of business durability over the long term. Yield is 0.60%.
They had a terrific quarter, but fell 6% anyway. Is -13% from all-time high of a few weeks ago. But it usually sells off on good quarters, but bounces back, so you must buy it into weakness. Almost always. They reported a revenue beat, but earnings miss. Same-store sales were +6.8%, beating the street. Operating margin barely missed as did EPS. Costco shoppers are still spending, but getting picky about value. Non-food same-store sales growth was around 15%, good. Only one-sixth of their goods come from China, Canada and Mexico, so they are fairly insulated from tariffs; and they can replaced those tariffed items with non-tariffed ones. Shares are hit because it's a high-PE stock and the market is down. Shares now are a buying opportunity.