Stockchase Opinions

Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Costco Wholesale Corporation COST-Q WAIT Aug 02, 2024

Superior retailer, steady and consistent revenue and bottom line growth for at least a decade. If you don't need cash tomorrow, it's always been a mistake to sell. Not huge growth (~6-8% topline, 11-12% bottom line), but growth nonetheless quarter after quarter. 

Historically trades around 30x earnings, a deserved premium. Announced subscription increase and stock took off along with the multiple at close to 50x. Lots of exuberance in the stock, be cautious. Wait for pullback to $700 level.

$821.095

Stock price when the opinion was issued

department stores
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WATCH

In addition to the 200-day MA, he looks at peaks and troughs. Look at the last low and the last high. The next high hit the previous high, so that's two relatively similar peaks. The stock may be below the 200-day MA (1st rule to sell), but it hasn't dropped below the last trough (2nd rule to sell). As long as it holds above the last trough, you're safe. 

Don't go into full panic right now. Hold for now; if it breaks that second rule, then get out.

BUY

Great company, a staple. Pullback lately. Membership renewal has been great, and she's watching that. Ranks 10/10 on fundamentals. She'd buy. Upside potential still 13-14% from here. 

BUY

Great stock. Incredible compounder of shareholder value over 4 decades. Recurring revenue from memberships, narrow assortment, and sharp pricing. Always looks expensive, but any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy.

DON'T BUY

Great operation. Steady membership and store buildout growth. Very expensive; 45-47x PE last time he checked. Too high of a bar for him as a value investor. Risks of supply chains, labour, inventory, tariffs. 

TOP PICK

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

(Analysts’ price target is $1071.56)
TOP PICK

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

(Analysts’ price target is $1071.56)
TOP PICK

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

(Analysts’ price target is $1071.56)
TOP PICK

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

(Analysts’ price target is $1071.56)
TOP PICK

The PE is high, they can add 20-30 stores a year for 20-30 years. A huge runway worldwide. They do all they can for employees and shareholders. One of the best businesses in the world.

(Analysts’ price target is $1071.56)
WAIT

Has maintained a premium valuation for a long time. If you're a growth investor, you could buy this one, but he's not wild about the valuation. Wait for a market correction.