Stockchase Opinions

The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki Costco Wholesale Corporation COST-Q TOP PICK Sep 22, 2022

Costco Wholesale Corp. engages in the operation of membership warehouses. Its product categories include food and sundries, hardlines, fresh foods, softlines, and ancillary. It operates through the following segments: Unites States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The company was founded by James D. Sinegal and Jeffrey H. Brotman in 1983 and is headquartered in Issaquah, WA. Social media mentions are up 600% in the past 24h.
$486.700

Stock price when the opinion was issued

department stores
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TOP PICK

Profitability is improving; expanding due to e-commerce growth, Kirkland signature, and ad revenue. Reputable brand. Opens 25-30 stores a year. Adding footprint in China. Likes the stability and steady growth. Performs well even in uncertain markets. Impressive membership renewal rate over 90%, and that recurring revenue is a major strength. Sales are still growing from both price and traffic increases. Yield is 0.51%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1067.36)
PARTIAL BUY
Are defying Trump's DEI policy

They boast profits and growth, and shares are -12% in the past month, making this a buy. No, it's not rolling over. Buy some now, and buy some next week.

TOP PICK

Managed to combine recurring revenue (membership fees) with traditional retail. Business model is still the best in the retail space. Big push toward lower-cost merchandisers. Second to none in its ability to not only survive, but thrive, in what could be a difficult economic environment. Yield is 0.48%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1063.88)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 29/24, Up 19%)

Any time it opens up a store, it's successful. Model is easy to replicate in other countries. Exceptional customer loyalty. Produce will probably be impacted less by tariffs, as it's sourced locally; hardware goods may be impacted.

SELL

Recently sold. PEG ratio just got too high.

BUY

They will survive this tariff war, because they can source cheap, bulk products.

SELL

Great company and franchise, but valuation got expensive.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It reports tomorrow. No matter how good the quarter will be, it will sell off as it always does after a quarter. Buy after the report.

HOLD

Wonderful business, though not a good valuation (and that's the orange flag). PE ratio is in the 40s if not the 50s, lots of growth already priced in. Even 30x PE is probably a bit rich. Fantastic job increasing cashflow per share. If you own it, hold on (again, from Charlie Munger, "do not interrupt compounding unnecessarily").

TOP PICK

Growth is driven by steady cadence of new-store expansion. Good traffic. About 9% compounded rate of sales growth over the last decade. Earnings have grown ~13%. Always looks expensive compared to peers, but that reflects its enduring, sustainable competitive advantage. Any day that ends in "y" is a good day to buy. Yield is 0.52%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1080.45)