Jim McGovern
Capital One Financial Corp
COF-N
TOP PICK
Jun 05, 2017
*Short*. The Company derives a good chunk of its revenue through its credit card business of about 40%, and its auto financing business, another 20%. Of that business, approximately one 3rd is subprime. One weak link in the US market is the subprime market where delinquencies and some of the charges are going to increase. Dividend yield of 2.1%. Thinks the stock can trade down to $59. (Analysts’ price target is $98.)
It's the 10th-largest US bank, at 8x PE. They expanded from credit cards into banking, and are building a strong brand. They're using technology to drive efficiency, will move to the cloud later this year. The trouble they'll have is that their client base on the retail side is weaker than peers like JP Morgan. COF isn't expensive and have grown impressively. Tech will make them more efficiency and overall COF will perform better post-Covid.
Likes some of the credit card companies. They make sense. Secular push from cash to electronic payments. Likes this name, but watch its auto loans and sub-prime lending. Technically, has performed well since the lows of last year. See his Top Picks.
Their just-released quarter shot the lights out, with great loan growth and defaults well below pre-Covid levels. Shares surged over $9 today. The street expected their credit card business would be plagued by defaults, but those folks were wrong.
The company itself is fine, but the capital/lending cycle concerns him, where bankruptcies will increase and decrease earnings, buybacks and dividends.
With regulation ahead, it's now more likely that their deal with Discover Financial will finally close--it's been taking forever. If so, COF could go up 25 points. No matter what, COF will be fine.
*Short*. The Company derives a good chunk of its revenue through its credit card business of about 40%, and its auto financing business, another 20%. Of that business, approximately one 3rd is subprime. One weak link in the US market is the subprime market where delinquencies and some of the charges are going to increase. Dividend yield of 2.1%. Thinks the stock can trade down to $59. (Analysts’ price target is $98.)