Chipotle Mexican GrillCMGBUYAug 14, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
More of a value play. Long track record of successfully making adjustments. Well run, lots of brand loyalty. Not the perfect environment for this type of business, but that's being reflected in the stock price (down 25-30%).
Earnings yesterday were not amazing. Same-store sales declined, yet the stock didn't really get punished. A positive, as that tells him the turnaround story is being believed. It'll take some time, but there is upside if it can execute on the turnaround. Opening new stores is a capital expenditure, but management has proven that those moves can increase ROI. No dividend.
Positioning appeals to a broad demographic, especially younger consumers who are more focused on quality and sustainability. Same-store sales expected to grow 6-7% this year. Brand still has pricing power. Store expansion is aggressive (300 stores this year) but disciplined. Efficiency is key to the story.
Not cheap, but justified. Track record of execution, clean balance sheet. Reports today after the bell, and she expects a beat. No dividend.
Shares are down 27% from the June 18 peak. It's an industry leader and market-share taker and the management team even without the CEO who just left for Starbucks. The Interim CEO has been there since 2017 and been involved with the integration with technology, the culture and through-put. He can maintain momentum. She also likes that they re-set numbers: same-store sales are forecast at 6% instead of 7% due to higher food costs which is still an amazing comp. Share buybacks remain solid. Earnings are growing 15-20%.