Stockchase Opinions

Michael Hakes - CFA, MBA Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG-N BUY May 09, 2025

Stock's down due to headwinds from macro economic concerns. Very well run, operations are spotless. Still runway for growth. Great chance to buy a quality company that's been hit.

$50.040

Stock price when the opinion was issued

food services
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DON'T BUY
Yesterday, Starbucks poached CMG's CEO

What bothers him is that the new Interim CEO should have been named the new CEO which would have made the transition smoother.

DON'T BUY
Pulled back when CEO left for SBUX.

Chart's hugging the 200-day MA, which could be an opportunity from a technical perspective. Consumer backlash about reduced portions. Worried whether same-store sales are peaking at this stage. Underperforming S&P 500 since spring. Not cheap at 48x forward PE, projected growth rate is 22%, still a 2.1 PEG ratio.

In the space, he owns MCD and QSR.

HOLD

They missed their same-store sales based on a very high bar. Some disappointment here because expenses were higher and will open fewer stores than announced. Hold. Fast food is a crowded space now. Where else can you go?

DON'T BUY

A new CEO was announced. CMG faces a challenge from Starbucks and Shake Shack. The CMG chart is sideways as capital moves out of here and into Starbucks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He heard today that next year's growth rate won't be that high, and still shares went up today. The is doing a great job. Trading this is a sucker's game. Own it and buy more on weakness.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It reports Tuesday. Always buy on dips. Is a fine growth stock in restaurants. 

WAIT

Sells at 38x PE, so this will be down on today's tariff news, but buy it after all the tariff news.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They reported a quarter that people didn't like, but shares still rose. This means that this company has limited tariff problems. This stock will never be cheap, but it's rarely been down this long.

SELL

He sold it. Momentum faded from a revenue slowdown. He owned it for a long time.