Paul MacDonald
Biogen IDEC Inc.
BIIB-Q
COMMENT
May 03, 2019
Demonstrates how binary risk can happen in individual securities. Big driver recently has been failure in an Alzheimer's study. Had to shut the study down, which caught the market by surprise. Likes it, though risk in this stock is high, with a relatively high rate of return. For all large cap biotech, make sure you have at least a couple of positions.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'ReillyBIIB has been on a roller-coaster. When the FDA announced a priority review of a new Alzheimer's drug, it stock soared to $360. When the review failed to approve the drug in the first go-round, the stock plunged to under $250 -- so it goes with drug manufacturers. Its MS drugs continue to do well and it is working on treatments for Parkinson's disease as well. Trading at 8x earnings, it is cheap compared to peers at 30x. We would buy this with a $180 stop-loss looking to achieve $305 -- 26% upside. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $305.90)
Very high risk, very high reward. Seeing competition on its core drugs. Its Alzheimer's drug didn't get a great reception. Somewhere around June 7 the regulator will rule on this drug. Could be impacted 30% up or 50% down. Not for him.
(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 26.1%)Stochchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with CIEN has gapped up through the $305 target. To be disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $180) to $305. If triggered, this would all but guarantee a minimum investment return over 26%.
(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 43%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIIB is progressing well. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $305) to $320. If triggered this would all but guarantee a investment return over 29%, when including the previous recommendation to cover half.
(A Top Pick Nov 26/20, Up 32.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BIIB has triggered its stop at $320. We recommend covering the position at this time. We will look for another entry point when value is justified again.
They haven't launched their weight-loss drug yet, but the company's expects something big from it next year. The problem is that BIIB is lumped in with the general drug group.