Stockchase Opinions

Adam Thomas Brookfield Renewable Partners BEP.UN-T DON'T BUY May 29, 2017

We are never going back to coal. Everyone has moved off it, despite what Mr. Trump happens to say about it. If it gets back down to the $39 area he might be tempted to play it, however.

$42.710

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Utilities
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BUY

Lots of hydro power, a long-life asset. Partnership with CCO for Westinghouse nuclear (and she's pretty bullish on nuclear power generation).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/24, Up 6%)

Total return is positive because of the distribution yield. Rough year for the sector. New US administration doesn't support the sector; removal of tax credits is a headwind. Long-term secular growth theme, with near-term hiccups and volatility. MSFT agreement gives visibility to revenues, other companies want similar agreements.

TOP PICK

Need for energy and power continues to increase. About half its assets are hydro, which she likes for long-term growth. Geographic and asset diversification. Huge deal with MSFT, which should increase production by ~33%. Joint venture with CCO to do Westinghouse nuclear servicing, and she's bullish on clean energy. Poised to do well. Yield is 5.77%, and dividends grow 5% a year.

(Analysts’ price target is $39.39)
BUY

Undervalued. Well run. Diverse assets. Lots of hydro, as well as solar and wind, both in NA and globally. One of the leading players internationally. Huge increase in demand in electricity from data centres and AI; many of the hyperscalers want to use clean energy. Deal with MSFT.

Near-term underperformance and tax-credit concerns from the "big, beautiful bill", but long-term trend toward renewables is intact.

DON'T BUY

Diversified. Trying to find momentum. About 5% upside to price target. EPS growth and revenue have been down. She'd stay away until you see some strong numbers. Decent dividend yield of ~5.5%.

DON'T BUY

The chart for AQN tells the story for the sector.

Seeing signs of improvement. Both AQN and NPI have moved above 200-day (40-week) moving average, a positive. Especially so because a lot more quant funds are moving $$ in the markets, and one of the triggers they look at is whether or not it's above that technical level. It it's above, they can buy it; if not, either they can't buy it or they short it. Likes the regulated utilities -- FTS, H, EMA, CU, CPX.

If he were less cautious, he'd be more bullish. Not a big fan. More of a value play. Technically, they've been laggards. Better places to put your $$.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 05/24, Up 8%)

Major deals with tech companies for power requirements for data centres. Long-life hydro assets. Maintenance for nuclear reactors. Came off on US tax credit issues, but they have great global flexibility. Over 5% yield.

DON'T BUY

Renewables are now the cheapest way to generate electricity. Data centres are the biggest thing going. Need for electricity is enormous and increasing. He'd own BN instead.

DON'T BUY
BN vs. BEP-U

BN to hold the entire Brookfield family, and BM is at a discount than it has been for a while. BEP trades at a premium among renewables, which have been under pressure from Trump cancelling wind and other green projects. Also, Northland Power is far better than BEP, given NPI's better valuation and growth potential.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 05/24, Up 15%)

Happy to hold. Just announced big investment in Colombian hydro assets. Exciting part is agreements with hyperscalers for power to data centres. Increasing power demand is a secular theme.