Stock price when the opinion was issued
In his momentum mandate. Best planes out there in medium- and long-range heavy aircraft. Sells to the rich, who keep getting richer, so there's an appetite for their planes. Sold off, probably due to fears of tariff vulnerability. Lots of manufacturing in Canada, though most customers are in US.
Order backlog is good. Supply chains problems are being ironed out. Executing very well. Going after defense and maintenance markets. Good cashflow and de-leveraging to support the shares.
Very focused on a single segment, private aviation. Increasingly, more revenues are coming from after-market parts and service. Bigger addressable market opportunities with the bigger installed base of its planes.
Growing opportunity in small, but high-margin, segment where they adapt a plane's chassis to reconnaissance planes of NATO allies. Deleveraging, big free cashflow. No dividend.
Continues to be an accretive growth story with deleveraging. Tariff noise was unexpected. Still, showing solid execution. Forward 2025 guidance appears achievable. Impressive ability to improve margins. Not expensive at 11x PE for 2026, growing at 17%. Not for the faint of heart.
Demand is off the charts. Bump in the road right now is about tariffs on parts, steel, aluminum. Much different business than before. Generating lots of free cash, balance sheet improving rapidly. Manufacturing is a tough business, and he'd rather a segment with more certainty with a stock like TDG.
Gaining altitude. Technological leadership in medium- and long-range aircraft. Order book looks pretty robust, production slate is full. After-market parts and service provide stable revenue. Airplanes can be repurposed for military use, and Canada's recently upped defense spending commitments.
Long and complex supply chain, and tariffs are still a wild card. So not out of the woods yet. Stock breaking out to fresh all-time highs speaks to its resilience and to worst-case tariff scenario probably not materializing.
7.35% bond maturing in 2026. This company is going through all sorts of problems trying to get the C series launched. He does not think it is going to be a failure, but will probably have to do more discounting to get more sales. It not only has the C series, but also has the regional jet, business jet and a good train division. This company is rated just below investment grade, but you have about 6.5% yield to maturity and you are going out 12 years. It’s a full 420 basis points credit spread over Canada’s. Thinks the credit spread is excessive for their high quality businesses and in 3-4 years they will probably be regaining investment grade credit status. An investment grade bond does not trade anywhere close to 420 basis points. You are getting paid for the credit risks you are taking on.