Stockchase Opinions

Darren Sissons Bayer AG BAYRY-OTC PAST TOP PICK Aug 06, 2024

(A Top Pick Jul 31/23, Down 51%)

He sold it last February. When he bought it was down 50% on the Mansanto litigation. He dumped up, classic risk management.

$7.460

Stock price when the opinion was issued

chemicals
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DON'T BUY
Into pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Things seem to be moving along very well. Getting a little overpriced at these levels.
BUY ON WEAKNESS

On these big Chemicals you are always best to wait for an opportunity to get in. There isn't an urgent rush. This company is a monstrously big company.

DON'T BUY
Their last quarter wasn't great; there was some positive news in their pharma pipeline. They sold assets from BASF to reduce net debt, which is now at Euros 36.5 billion. The debt-to-cash flow is still high, so they have a low credit rating. Their chemical side isn't growing. EPS are down 18%, which pressured the stock. JNJ has a better phrama pipeline and credit rating.
TOP PICK

It is priced at 50 cents on the dollar compared to its peers. In 2018 it bought Monsanto and the Roundup litigation halved the company. However it is being dealt with. It has three new drugs on the pharma side, one with no near term competitors when it comes off patent. It will probably spin out the herbicide business and sits at a very attractive price.    Buy 18  Hold 8  Sell 1

DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

There was some positive news on the 16th, after a US court ruled in favor of its Monsanto business in a lawsuit alleging that BAYRY's Roundup weedkiller products increase the risk of cancer. These claims were dismissed and the stock jumped over 10% that day. Recent quarterly results were positive and it beat on earnings and affirmed full-year guidance. It continues to be very cheap at 5.5x forward earnings but growth is not expected to be high while debt is also very high. We continue to not be overly excited here. 
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