Opinions
Paul MacDonald
Astrazeneca P L C
AZN-N
COMMENT
Oct 20, 2020
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Is overlooked in pharma. It boasts an amazing oncology business, including recent positive trial data on phase 2 and 3 lung cancer drugs, which could be breakthroughs. Shares have doubled in the last 5 years and has been climbing since 2016. Last April they delivered a blowout quarter with an earnings beat and a bullish forecast including a 8.5% compound annual growth rate based on doubling multi-billion drugs to 25 by 2030. Also, they are developing obesity drugs.
Very strong R&D pipeline, with new products expected. Off recent share price highs, which is a good time to buy. Margins very strong on new products. Expecting earnings to rise in the immediate future. Low double digit EPS @ 16x earnings a very strong value proposition. Will continue to hold for the long term.
Premium contentThe big pharma is developing a GLP-1 weight loss treatment that avoids injections -- a big game changer - and trials are looking good. The stock trades at 32x earnings and supports a 16% ROE. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $52, looking to achieve $88 -- upside potential of 30%. Yield 2.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $88.01)Premium contentWe reiterate AZN as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings indicated a 19% increase in earnings and revenues. Management announced positive development on 9 new drugs worth $5 billion in future revenues and a plan to invest over $800 million in Ontario creating 700 jobs. The shares trade at 18x earnings and support a 30% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $52) to $64, looking to achieve $88 -- upside potential of 21%. Yield 1.4%
(Analysts’ price target is $88.24)They rallied last summer, then faced headwinds last fall when a cancer drug failed to perform in trials and there was an investigation in their large Chinese business. Both problems are clearing now. They have a drug pipeline that should become a great growth story. Trades at 15x PE.
Premium contentPremium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with AZN has triggered its stop at $71. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 1%, when combined with our previous guidance.
Likes the pipeline. A number of candidates to seek approval in the next couple of years, which will be a catalyst for earnings going forward. Fairly productive R&D engine. Also growth through tuck-in acquisitions. Relatively attractively priced given current growth outlook. Going to be second-fastest growing drug stock in Europe behind NVO. Yield is 3.06%.
(Analysts’ price target is $85.38)
Their Covid vaccine in progress For most of the large-cap pharmas he owns, the benefits of producing this vaccine won't benefit these companies as much as people think. That said, AZN has been executing very well in areas like oncology--a key driver for them. In May, AZN's vaccine was his front runner in this race. AZN (with Oxford University) did have a negative reaction during their recent phase 3 test, though, so there is a risk here. However AZN has resumed tests outside the U.S., so expect results a little later. So now Pfizer has become the front runner. He's looking for the safety profile of AZN's candidate. If their vaccine is a miss, there will be stock volatility, but also a buying opportunity. A great company.