Stan Wong ASML Holding ASML-Q TOP PICK Jul 27, 2023

He just re-bought it. Shares are rallying today because analysts raised earnings expectations. He continues to expect at the end of this year and into next increasing orders for their EUV, a large $250 device that can cram as many advanced features on a chip as possible. Also, the valuation of ASML has fallen to an attractive though not cheap level at 25x PE, no longer 40x.

Surprised when it lowered guidance, order book was way down, and the stock rolled over by 15% just like that. He didn't sell, as it's still a leader in lithography. The memory side of the business is very cyclical, though the AI side was very robust. What he did, though, was get rid of some of his memory chip stocks.

The company also talked about how China has built out facilities for memory chips. So, another supply of memory chips that will influence the cyclicality.

It makes equipment that is used by semi-conductor manufacturers. It is more cyclical than the semi-conductor sector, which outside of AI shifts is already facing a flat to downward cycle.

Fell below 200-day MA in summer, he got stopped out. Would revisit the name once the dust settles. 30x forward PE for 20% earnings growth. Trying to base. Long-term AI sector thesis very much intact. The leader in its niche.

Last October, warning shock for chip investors. Cut 2025 guidance. He got out of the way. Lithography is a cyclical business. If you're still holding, sell.

Last year was rough, but is holding up better this year. Long term for her, though it may doing nothing in the near future as the Nasdaq stays under pressure.

The do a lot of business with China, and Trump refuses to help any Dutch company do business in China, a business ASML needs. (Biden felt the same.) ASML controls a crucial part in the entire semiconductor chain.

It reports Wednesday. Is afraid it will miss like last time. Not exactly opaque--a complicated company.

His holding in the space instead of TSM.

Hardware makers are in a tricky spot. Sold, mainly because so many headlines involve the US trying to clamp down on China's access to everything related to semiconductors. Part of China's response to that was to buy up as much non-advanced-edge chip equipment as it could. An overhang going forward.

See his Past Top Picks for a name he likes a lot more.