Keith Richards Arc Resources Ltd ARX-T HOLD Dec 20, 2024

The price of oil always gets pulled around. He likes the natural gas side a bit more -- it's been through a bear market for years and now coming out of that. Over time, increased ability to get nat gas offshore and the world needs it.

But if you go 100% natural gas it's more risky. So, be more diversified but with a tilt to gas. He likes names that are cheaper than they ought to be. For him that's ARX or, for more torque, AAV.

Excellent company. One of the better operated companies in the Canadian basin. Would wait on Trump tariff announcement before buying. Overall, a very good company. 

Among the best-managed in Canadian energy. Likes the balance of owning infrastructure, condensate production (prices could rise during tariffs) and LNG development on the west coast.

EPS of 63c beat estimates of 53c. Revenue of $1.42B beat estimates of $1.38B. EBITDA of $881M beat estimates by 13%. Profit fell 27% despite higher production, due to lower prices. Production rose 4.7% year-over-year. Production matched estimates. EPS does call for lower income in 2025 but we think this is well-reflected in its low valuation. Overall, we are comfortable. 
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Best way to get Canadian nat gas exposure. They just signed a deal with Exxon, selling 25% of nat gas at international prices. Have deep, deep inventory. Is cheap to US peers. Pays a 3% dividend. He's bullish natural gas given AI and data centres.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Energy's been under a bit of pressure lately. Still nothing wrong with the chart. Could pull back a bit more, but the trend is up. Great company. Fundamentally, one of the best. 

He likes the idea of adding on weakness, that's what he's been doing. He uses a lot of optionality in his portfolios. So he's writing puts in the energy sector to acquire companies; if they don't go to those prices, he just earns the income. He's perfectly happy with a strategy like that at this point.

If we get a harder economic landing at some point, then oil has some more downside. The US outlook for crude oil demand was just downgraded. We're in a trading range, and he's accumulating into weakness.

Has more embedded growth due to assets they own, with a bit more wet gas linked to condensate and oil prices. Likes its assets.

Attachie, a growth project, has superb economics. They have about 4 or 5 more buried in their portfolio. Exposure to condensates, but it's really a gas play. Outlook for Canadian nat gas is meaningfully improving as LNG Canada comes on. (This is as long as producers show discipline and don't flood the market.) Conservative management, which is what you want in this climate.

Stands out as a really good value proposition, which he thinks will attract US investors when they realize there's nothing left to buy in the USA. Believes embedded resource value will be realized by somebody down the road. Yield is 2.96%.

Is a long-term hold. It's focused on gas and natural gas, which boasts great fundamentals. Arc is the top nat gas developer in Canada and owns a lot of its infrastructure, so are vertically integrated. The 2.93% dividend and cash flow are growing. Buy below $25, if you can.