Apotex HealthAPTX.TODON'T BUYOct 20, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
Largest pharma company in the small Canadian space. Q1 revenues up a nice 11%, EBITDA margins strong at 31%. Paid down debt. Catalysts for growth. New company with limited track record. Expired cancer drug licence means a 1% hit to revenue. Ever-present risks of generic pricing and regulation.
The (very few) analysts who cover it project 14% growth. Trades at 13x PE. Too risky for your registered account. It's come down enough that you can buy a bit down here.
Bought shortly after the IPO. First-mover advantage in generic GLP-1s in Canada -- a multi-billion-dollar opportunity (with a capture rate likely north of 20%). Quality control issues and recalls. Competitors moving into the space. Chart behaviour is totally consistent with an IPO.
Pullback is a buying opportunity. Though new to public markets, multi-decade history of operations. Likes growth prospects.
Profitable business, over $1.5B of operating cashflow. Moved beyond generics to molecules and biologics. Only generic GLP-1 drug in Canada. Low valuation.
Most importantly, we have't had an institutional-quality healthcare company in Canada for over 10 years. All we have are pot stocks. Are those really healthcare? This is a legitimate, large-cap play in a growth sector that should draw institutional interest. High margin, generates a lot of cashflow. Recent secondary sale put a bit of pressure on the stock. Yield is 0.72%.
Largest manufacturer of conventional, specialty, and biosimilar generic drugs in Canada. Cleaner balance sheet since the IPO. Big near-term catalyst is GLP-1 market; first-mover advantage could lead it to capture 20% or more of that market. Lots of branded pharmaceuticals going off patent in Canada in next 5 years.
Good-sized position in US, growing organically there as well. No dividend.
Looks impressive, but he likes a bit more trading history before jumping in. (Interestingly, the IPO came out just before SpaceX, and APTX has outperformed it.) Seeing amazing growth, as well as projected growth. Moving beyond generics to biosimilars (take long to be approved, not as much risk, margins tend to be higher). Expanding to US and beyond.
In the short-term, it's in a downtrend.