Charles Oliver, HBSc CFAAlamos Gold IncAGI.TOPAST TOP PICKAug 05, 2014

Good play. Reasonable at 15x PE for 2026. Exploration results really good. Lots of irons in the fire. Seeing resource and reserve growth.

Has come off with the price of gold. This name, along with AEM, is the best-run gold company in Canada, if not in the world. Both continually replace mines with fresh, high-quality reserves. 

Production forecasts are spectacular. Stepped back to just below his downside target of $54. He's waiting for it to grip here. You could buy 1/3 of a position today, then see what happens. (For stocks that have set back, he finds that you tend to do better buying in stages than buying all at once.) Yield is 0.41%.

In both his momentum and dividend growers mandates. Gold price was rocket fuel to earnings and cashflows. Still a fairly undemanding valuation based on prolific FCF.

AGI next reports Feb 18; in the Q3, EPS of 37c beat estimates of 36c; revenue of $462M missed estimates by 7%. EBITDA of $283.5M missed estimates by 7%. Of course, since then the price of gold has soared, and AGI has further earnings leverage. Last week it did release Q4 production numners, which did miss estimates. However, the miss was largely due to a seismic event and weather issues. We would not consider it too serious and the stock decline likely reflects the situation well. We think the stock is interesting and buyable at current levels and would consider a 'more conservative' play for the sector. The company remains debt-free with with more than $200M net cash.
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It might have more upside in the short term. Is bullish gold, though the gold stocks have moved up a lot lately.

Likes last year's acquisition of Argonaut. Good path to boost production by 11% compounded rate of growth by end of the decade. None of the intermediates or seniors can match this. All in low political risk jurisdictions. Yield is 0.35%.

In friendly jurisdictions. Gold has been consolidating, and so has this stock. Some production from Manitoba mine has been lower grade, but that should pick up over the next 3 quarters. Gold producers have started to outperform the metal, which tells you we're in a bull market.

He prefers Kinross because it has a little more growth but both are excellent. As to the price of gold he thinks it holds with no big moves higher or lower.

Great performer. Moved up from small cap to something bigger and more diversified. Still likes it, though there was some disappointment after release of Q1 results. Good portfolio of mines, pretty good organic growth profile. Recent acquisition will be synergistic. Mines are in jurisdictions where not at risk of having rug ripped out from under.

Consolidating due to recent gains, and gold hasn't broken out to new highs (though on the doorstep). Good time to add. Feeling pretty good about upcoming Q2 numbers, as a lot of cost pressures were just issues of timing and should reverse. In the long run, aspiring to be an emerging AEM, either organically or via merger.

Gold bull markets go on for a long time, and this one's driven by central banks. Cashflow generated will continue to rise. Inexpensive. Sector's consolidating right now. 

This name continues to work, entire space has been on fire. The kind of chart you want to see. For precious metals, we're approaching negative seasonality (July-October). Will probably see a pullback over next couple of months. If you own, set some risk-control levels. If you want to add, go ahead now but keep some powder dry for later.

Likes this name in its space. His guess is that in the next month or so, Trump's going to roll back a lot of stuff and the economy will be better. So areas like gold are going to sell off.

He's bullish on gold. Excellent management. Among the very best reserves, and keeps finding more quality ones.

Now a $14B market cap, an emerging large-cap company. Likes last year's acquisition of Argonaut. Great organic growth profile of 12% annual compound growth rate in production -- no mid- or large-cap can match that. Negligible geopolitical risk of Canada and Mexico. Yield is 0.4%.

This name is further down the food chain. Take a look at the more interesting mid-size players. Still, he's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back. So he's waiting to see how things shake out.