Stockchase Opinions

Marty Zwieg Aetna Inc. AET-N TOP PICK Nov 26, 2004

Likes conservative, low P/E stocks. The P/E on his picks average 9. Has made new highs.
$116.160

Stock price when the opinion was issued

medical services
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TOP PICK
At $52.50, it was getting to be expensive for an insurance company. Corrected viciously which he doesn't think was warranted. Trades at around 12 X earnings. Company is going to buy back a couple of billion $’s of stock this year. Generates huge amounts of cash.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 11/06. Down the 11.5%.) Has been very disappointing.
PAST TOP PICK
March 9,2009 recommended at 11.73. A bit of a surprise, but just shows what good management could do.
TOP PICK
December Puts. Writes every month. If he owns the stock, he writes Calls and if he doesn't own and wants to enter, he writes Puts. A US insurance company so a more conservative play and less volatile. Wrote this on Nov 28 right after expiration. Wrote it for $1.22 on a strike of $39 giving a 5% option yield (option premium/strike) on a 30 day basis.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Dec 1/11, Up 4.90%) Was intended as a short term trade.
DON'T BUY

Healthcare stocks are very strong this time of year. Upward strength is probably okay right here. You may want a few more higher highs and higher lows here. Compared to others in the sectors, they have broken to all time highs so this one is lagging and for this reason he would prefer one of the others.

BUY

This is an area in the healthcare space which is showing pretty good valuations across the board. The whole group is at pretty compelling valuations. A decent stock to own.

TOP PICK

(His Top Pick stocks are still holding up as of present, but the big warning is the systemic risk that is involved with the market.) A healthcare provider and tends to gain from about November all the way through to April with an average gain of about 22.3%, and has been positive in 22 of the past 25 years. It has consolidated right at the long-term trend line. The long-term trend line has support at $106, and as long as it stays there, you can have a very profitable trade between now and April.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 8/16. Up 3.23%.) Seasonal strength is from the start of November through to the beginning of April. The average return over that period is 22.3%. There is not much reason to be in this right now.

COMMENT

CVS is going to merge with this. As a general comment on this market, he likes the insurance category. With higher interest rates, insurance companies will benefit much larger than banks. Companies with exposure to life insurance and longtail risks will actually have a much higher exposure, relative to property and casualty. If you can buy at a discount to the acquisition price, that is great, but as a long-term hold, start thinking about getting some exposure to insurance markets.