Agnico-Eagle MinesAEM.TODON'T BUYFeb 17, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
One of the highest-quality gold miners in Canada. Strong operating record, very good balance sheet. Most assets are in relatively stable jurisdictions. Last quarter strong, production better than expected, costs well-controlled. Record FCF. Modest upside. Wait to add on weakness, don't chase here.
Full-year production now expected near lower end of guidance. Watch that, as well as price of gold. She owns ABX instead.
Cashflow machine. $3B or so in cash on the balance sheet. Down 34% from peak (including $30 jump from yesterday). Largest and best gold miner in Canada. Low-risk jurisdictions. Lots of growth plans beyond 2030 to increase production, much of it by expanding existing mines (means lower risk). Very conservative management. Yield is 1.08%.
(Analysts’ price target is $225.15)Gold is now trading pretty soberly on price to NAV. If you believe that the USD is eventually going to put in a high here and gold will start to assert itself (and that's the better view), then you can buy gold stocks here. Gold stocks can be fickle. Upcoming quarter may see margins pinched a bit due to higher costs, but that's already reflected in the price.
Very high-quality company. Hard for him to understand why any serious investor in Canada wouldn't own it. Reasonable valuation. Absolutely superlative company. Generates a whole bunch of cash. Five years of development growth already within the company. 40-year track record of operational excellence and superb capital allocation.
Would absolutely put $$ in today (doesn't mean it won't be cheaper a year from now, but it definitely will be higher 5 years hence). Yield is 1.07%.
He likes materials, but pared back on gold last March. All materials moved up and are now consolidating. AEM went parabolic in early 2026, so no surprise it's pulled back, and the chart is now on the historic trendline. It's an okay play if you're patient. Maybe wait for it to bounce off this trendline. He expect gold to move up in a few months.
EPS was 41c, matching estimates; revenue was $1.385B, 3% short of estimates.
EBITDA of $496M was 20% short.
Guidance was weak: AEM noted it expected production to be lower and costs to be higher for the next three years.
The stock dropped the most in two years.
Guidance is about 6% below prior forecasts due to 'permit issues, noise restrictions and revised mining operations'.
Cost guidance rose 15% from the company's prior expectations. 4Q gold production was 799,438 ounces, vs 812,537 estimated.
The Yamana deal is expected to close in March. We can deal with short term issues, but we do not like a three year outlook of lower production as well as higher costs.
The price drop is justified here.
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