Apple IncAAPLCOMMENTJun 04, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 16, 2026. Market Open.
Her team is less positive on consumer spending, so they're not in this name. Key for long-term success will be how they embed AI into the iPhone. Not an impressive job thus far. Management changes could result in better innovation on AI -- has potential, but needs to show it.
For her, it's less about the foldable phone and more about a unique AI platform.
Some predict weakness in Apple's new iPhone sales because Apple raised the price of the phone in line with the rising cost of memory. Demand will depend on the telcos--will they continue to subsidize the growth in iPhones? It could be a challenge for the telcos. Next week, Apple has to show very good progress with Siri to have a successful phone launch. If not....
Sat out the capex buildout, relying on owning the end consumer. Time will tell if this was the right strategy. Massive service industry, with margins above 75%. The default stalwart when investors get worried about AI capex debt. Really good brand and margins, best share buyback program ever. Market's still trying to figure out where it fits in the AI ecosystem.
Since March, he's bought this 6 times and it kept moving higher. It's up 26% since the June 25 low of $273. It is losing near-term momentum, for sure, and is vulnerable to a deeper decline. When it does, the stock will pause, and he will continue to buy more, because this is the Mag 7 stock that will stand above the others.
With Apple, there are always fundamental issues--manufacturing, chips, China, competition--which heat up as the PE rises, now 33x. If you're overweight Apple, they reduce their holding until the market climbs on the bandwagon when Apple is cheap and people load up. It always happens. She is happy to hold.
He sold half his position. It was frothy at $330 going into earnings. There's margin pressure from the rising costs of chips going into their new iPhones. While others were saying that Apple finally was going AI, he's still waiting. If you have an oversize position, takes some profits. But if your average cost of $15 and you're long term, then you'll pay a mighty big capital gains tax. Doubts this will fall back to $200. The fundamentals have not changed. Overall, the chart moves up with ups and downs. If this falls to $270, he's back in. Now, it's too expensive at 33x PE. He'd add at 25x PE though doubts we'll reach that.
It is a microcosm of the S&P 500. It has had a tendency of peaking out at 5.5 times its book value. It usually sinks back 15-20% of its trading value when it hits here. He expected this but this time it did not happen. AAPL-Q has been trying to push higher but every time it gets there it gets pushed down. One thing that is interesting is that if you look at the slope of the growth of AAPL-Q, It was growing aggressively until 2012 and then they started to buy back shares and the growth of the company slowed considerably. Most interesting is that the rate of earnings growth has also slowed down as it has for many other similar companies that have bought back stock. This move to buy back stock is damaging to shareholders. If the company is not reinvesting, the growth slows. They wasted shareholders' money with these buybacks. The ceiling is $161 right now. The book value will go down. If we ever get into a market correction then this stock will have a good one.