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Today, Eric Nuttall commented about whether CVE-T, TOG-T, MEG-T, PEY-T, KEL-T, SU-T, CNQ-T, ERF-T, CPG-T, BTE-T, VII-T, AAV-T, BIR-T, NVA-T, WCP-T, VET-T, ARX-T are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT
Market Outlook It is amazing to think oil was trading above $40 a month ago. The build in inventories around the world are starting to slow as demand is slowly recovering. Demand had been down 32 million barrels per day. This may mean it will take a lot less time for things to normalize. Apple tracking mileage in the US shows travel is down only about 9% from a year ago. OPEC members too are struggling for survival. Global offshore is going into stagnation due to loss of capital investment. As bad as thing were, the outlook for 2021 is incredibly bullish. Using $50 oil prices, share prices could potentially quadruple. There are estimates that total oil stocks globally went up 450 million barrels, about half of what the IEA had predicted. June WTI futures go off the board next week. He feels it is much less likely that it will settle negative like the May contract.
Unknown
COMMENT
Arc Resources Ltd

ARX vs VET ARX holds super high quality liquids assets in the Montney formation. VET has a more diversified production slate including Australia and the Netherlands as well as Canada. The US has shut in 1.4 million barrels a day, this has reduced associated natural gas production. This will tighten the natural gas markets making it much more bullish. This is helpful for ARX, more so. He has not been a huge supporter of the VET management team and is less bullish on European natural gas markets (where VET is more active). ARX also provides a better dividend stream.

oil / gas
COMMENT

ARX vs VET ARX holds super high quality liquids assets in the Montney formation. VET has a more diversified production slate including Australia and the Netherlands as well as Canada. The US has shut in 1.4 million barrels a day, this has reduced associated natural gas production. This will tighten the natural gas markets making it much more bullish. This is helpful for ARX, more so. He has not been a huge supporter of the VET management team and is less bullish on European natural gas markets (where VET is more active). ARX also provides a better dividend stream.

oil / gas
BUY
Whitecap Resources
A high quality way to play a bullish oil play. Q2 earnings are going to be bad, but it depends on what the balance of the year and 2021 holds. They have a modest decline rate, which reduces the capex required. He thinks the dividend is sustainable around $35 oil prices. He was buying it yesterday. Yield 9.5%
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
HOLD
Nuvista Energy Ltd

Trading volumes? The lower the share price, you have to trade more for a given trading position size. He thinks this will be a $4 stock down the road. Volatility in oil prices has caused investors to digest the market developments. He thinks oil prices will consolidate around here for a while. He likes management and the asset quality. They are immunized against weak cash flow. Well results in the last quarter were awesome, telling him the Cenovus assets they acquired are now validated.

oil / gas
COMMENT

Gas vs oil? As there is less oil production, associated natural gas production is falling. He owns BIR and was buying yesterday. AAV has performed well relative to other gas producers. He took profits on AAV recently and moved it into oil producers. BIR is trading at 2 times EV, but cuts its dividend by 81% recently. BIR is more cavalier on its spending, but feels it has more upside.

oil / gas
COMMENT

Gas vs oil? As there is less oil production, associated natural gas production is falling. He owns BIR and was buying yesterday. AAV has performed well relative to other gas producers. He took profits on AAV recently and moved it into oil producers. BIR is trading at 2 times EV, but cuts its dividend by 81% recently. BIR is more cavalier on its spending, but feels it has more upside.

oil / gas
BUY
At single digit oil, bankruptcies were a worry. He thinks we are no longer at that level. Unless a second dramatic wave of COVID occurs, demand for oil should continue to improve. VII gives exposure to natural gas, but they are also the largest condensate producer in Canada. He believes condensate price weakness is going away as the heavy oil differential has shrunk to only $4 per barrel. This is a sign the demand for Canadian heavy oil is strong. The company has brought down its corporate decline rate. This could triple or quadruple in value, he thinks.
Energy
PAST TOP PICK
Baytex Energy Corp
(A Top Pick Jul 19/19, Down 80%) A good reminder it is not how you start the year, but how you finish. He thinks energy prices will recover before year end. He no longer owns it. They had higher leverage than its peers. Their non-operated crown jewel is in the Eagleford. He thinks that became a knock against them as well. He has become more of bull on Canadian energy producers now.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 19/19, Down 56%) They did an awesome job monetizing some assets, including their Uinta holdings while getting good pricing. They will generate free cash flow as oil prices recover. They have good hedge positions. When interest levels returns to the space it should see a big rebound in value.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
Enerplus Corp
(A Top Pick Jul 19/19, Down 60%) A head scratcher for him. A strong balance sheet and low cost Marcellus natural gas production. They have a good inventory in the Bakken region as well. He likes the management team and the balance sheet is strong. He thinks they are under pressure to get something done, as private equities are hunting for assets. He thinks they are in a financial position to make some key acquisition.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Phase I was the valley of death, when oil prices went to single digits. Now in Phase II, oil prices have recovered and the market is now waiting to see what happens to oil demand and how quickly it recovers. He holds 12 names, 8 of them oil producers. He would rather own a smaller cap producer. CNQ has tough competition on its cash flow to keep paying the dividend (he was surprised they didn't cut the dividend). He thinks when a buyer enters on a small cap stock, it can turn higher more aggressively.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Suncor Energy Inc
Dividend safe? They cut their dividend about a week ago. He is not as bullish on SU as it is the largest constituent of the energy index. This means anyone who has been hiding has probably already bought this, leaving less upside opportunity. It has a poorer cost base compared to its peers. They also have a large capex obligation in about two years. He thinks this will hold them back from being able to acquire some good low valued companies. There are better names out there.
integrated oils
BUY
Kelt Exploration
He has been a recently buyer. The knock is that they are fully drawn against their credit facility. They are undergoing credit reviews by the banks and that is holding things back. They have deferred monetization of assets until at least 2021. There is still room for a good rally from here.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.
oil / gas