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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market. He sees a risk that oil goes below $50. There is the inventory build in the US, the battle with China over trade and sanctions with Iran. But the EIA report was favourable this time and the news with Iran and the drone today. The G20 will involve Trump and the Chinese leader having an extended discussion. He thinks the G20 will not come to the solution that everyone thinks. Trump won't want to solve it until Q1 of 2020 because of the election. The US may already be in recession. People are throwing out the number that maybe the Fed will cut by 50 basis points. This is the longest economic recovery in history and we are beginning to see signs that there may be some problems. If the trade issue does not get resolved in July we may see the price of oil back off.
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BUY
Delphi Energy Corp.
It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been hammered, however.
oil / gas
HOLD
People need to realize that because of the construction season, the price of ACO is $0.05 and nobody can make money at that. It is a very cheap stock. They are right on the fairway to fill the LNG Canadian needs. He would stay with it. They have sufficient cash flow.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Down 94%) The whole thing about low energy prices and the debt restructuring meant the stock got beat up. He will be adding to this position. People need to see that they can service the debt and then see the price of nat. gas firm up.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Down 8%) He hoped Trinidad would do the deal and be in the pockets of PD-T, but it did work out. Ensign's offer won in the end. It worked out for him.
oil / gas field services
PAST TOP PICK
SDX Energy Inc.
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Down 7%) They disenchanted the Canadian shareholders. They just wanted European shareholders. This stock is gone now and he does not hold it.
oil / gas
HOLD
$277 Million market cap. Book value is over $2. They are waiting for two facilities to come on line. Their Q4 production should come up. It is a very cheap stock based on that. You have to take a very long term view on LNG in Canada. Then these will do well. He likes the management team and what they will do. They are doing all the right things operationally.
Energy
HOLD
It has a dividend yield of 6.3% and is involved in drilling rigs that are helicoptered in. They have a service rig business in Canada and the US. They are large on both sides and building their US side. This one has a dividend so there is more support than others is the space.
oil / gas
BUY
Suncor Energy Inc
This and CNQ-T are the two trophy stocks in Canada. The company is a cash generating machine. If you are looking for total return then stay with it. You will see good returns if you are patient.
integrated oils
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It is one of the two main trophies. It has gone sideways since 2008. It goes up 50% and down 50%. This is a very volatile sector. You have to take advantage of the lulls when the stock is cheap.
oil / gas
BUY
Whitecap Resources
He loves it. 84% liquids and trading at a significant discount to book. 8% dividend paid monthly. His target is $7 in 12 months. By the time we get to next winter we could get above $76 for oil. Oil-based companies should be able to raise their dividends. He would take advantage of this one and own it.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
TOP PICK
Surge Energy Inc
84% liquids and a monthly dividend of about 9%. He has a $2.40 target. They have an ability to grow production as we get higher commodity prices. It is one of the three names he likes in the dividend space. It traded at $2.61 when oil was at $76 in 2018. (Analysts’ price target is $2.06)
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Debt is only 23% so is not one to worry about for debt. His target is $4. 64% liquids. It was at $5.20 last year and is now under $2 late last week. Buy it at under $2. There is no dividend, though. (Analysts’ price target is $4.36)
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp
A nat. gas producer, the premium company. They are moving more towards liquids. It has an excellent balance sheet. A year from now they will be able to raise the dividend yet again. It has a lot of free funds flowing. He has a target of $24 in one year. (Analysts’ price target is $26.96)
oil / gas
COMMENT
Market Outlook - From a technical perspective 2950 seems to be the breakout point. It will fail from here or it is going to continue on the trend that we have been experiencing prior to January 2018. We had previous failed breakouts. The same for the TSX. It has had a lid in the 16,500. It is testing the lid. He needs to see that resistance levels are broken with conviction before he is convinced. He looks at the rule of 3 and 3 to identify breakouts: minimum of 3 days, and 3% higher.
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