COMMENT
Small GDP contraction in April.

Not surprising, given the tariffs. We also saw a lot of pre-buying before tariffs took place. Expectations for May and June are also negative. So we'll probably have negative GDP growth for the quarter as a whole.

A softening, but not necessarily a recession, which is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. BOC has been on hold for the last 2 meetings. Arguably, if it were not for the potential impact that tariffs will have on inflation, they may have continued to cut. But they're on hold now so they can see the impact of tariffs.

Despite the negative number, stock markets have actually been quite healthy. TSX at all-time highs, and now US markets are hitting them too. That tells her that expectations are that trade deals will be announced, and they'll be manageable. Corporations will either adjust their supply chains or absorb some of the costs. Potentially not as inflationary as some expected. If so, and especially in Canada with its slowing economic growth and rising unemployment, that gives central banks more leeway to continue cutting interest rates.

COMMENT
July 9 -- significant?

Kind of moot. Trump administration has conveyed that if they're talking to the various trading partners, and they can't get a deal signed by that date, there will likely be extensions. Prime Minister Carney announced that Canada hopes to have a trade deal of some kind within 90 days, which would take us beyond July 9. She has the feeling that we'll see extensions.

COMMENT
Will tariffs on aluminum, steel and cars stay?

Hopes they get dealt with, as the US is our major trading partner. It's nice that we're trying to develop other trading partners, but that will take time. Hopefully, the new trade deal will address those issues.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

All the US financials have done pretty well, which is a good reflection on the potential of the economy. Her core US bank stock. Great long-term hold. For new $$, wait for a pullback; on down days, you can start to average in. Very well run, lots of excess capital. Plans to grow US presence.

SELL

Right now, she has no exposure to the sector. Very competitive. Decrease in immigration takes away source of potential growth. They all provide a pretty attractive yield. Telus is an income stock, and perhaps they can increase it a bit each year, but the fundamentals of the sector aren't that attractive.

If you hold, sell, and look for a more attractive income stock in a sector with a better outlook.

HOLD

Largest payment processor in the world. Still lots of growth potential outside NA for transitioning from cash to digital. Value-added services, such as cybersecurity, are now almost 25% of revenue base. Robust network. Don't discount them because of stablecoin, will be actively involved.

SELL

Valuation has kept her out. Early mover, but the space is going to get more competitive. 

HOLD

Challenging year or two. Did well during Covid, then had to normalize. Then rising interest rates impacted spending in biotech. Chinese market's been very soft. Not growing at historical pace, but this should normalize. New US administration's focus on healthcare costs may impact some of TMO's clients.

In the end, one of the leaders in the space. Diverse and extensive international client base. Over the long term, healthcare is a very attractive industry to be in, mainly due to demographics. Attractive multiple.

COMMENT
Full position -- definition.

In her client portfolios, it would be anywhere from 2-4% of the overall portfolio.

SELL

She has no exposure to telcos, too competitive. Cut dividend, which will help preserve cashflow and balance sheet. But probably means dividend won't be raised anytime soon. Still questions about fibre strategy in US, which is also a very competitive market. Move on.

HOLD

Real estate arm of WN, which is the parent of Loblaw. Solid, conservative income name; mainly because primary tenant is Loblaw, a very consistent business that isn't going anywhere. Loblaw is actually expanding its discount stores, and CHP.UN would benefit. Pretty safe income stream.

She owns Loblaw for clients. 

HOLD

Likes its positioning in food retail and its pharmaceutical business. Expansion of pharmacists' duties is helping traffic. Discount banners have really been benefiting from softness in the economy, and they have plans to expand the discount footprint. Acquisition of TNT, an Asian chain, is going well.

HOLD

Likes the engineering services sector. She owns WSP and would recommend buying that name. But you can hold this one if you have it.

BUY

Likes the sector, which is growing. Strategic acquisitions at good prices. Just bought a company in Europe to expand presence there. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/24, Up 6%)

Total return is positive because of the distribution yield. Rough year for the sector. New US administration doesn't support the sector; removal of tax credits is a headwind. Long-term secular growth theme, with near-term hiccups and volatility. MSFT agreement gives visibility to revenues, other companies want similar agreements.