PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 29/24, Up 6%)

Will probably do reasonably well in light of tariffs, as the chemicals they provide for NA water treatment are rather nichey. Well-run company. Its decent and safe dividend makes investors more tolerant of rough waters.

PARTIAL BUY

Autos are the hardest sector to analyze on tariffs. Chart shows that it's gone nowhere for a long time; the high was back in 2011, then dead money. The low from 2022 is ~$22. If you're interested, buy a half position right now. Then watch. If you own it, certainly don't sell; we've seen this ride with Honda before.

PARTIAL BUY

Acting pretty well today. Indicators are trying to turn up, meaning some of the selling is maxed out and people are stepping in. Support around $175, then heavy support around $155. After that, support level is ~$110.

WATCH

Double-top on the chart was a warning sign. Trendline broke pretty dramatically ~$120. We're now just above some longer-term support, around $60. After a selloff, investors tend to step into the bigger names first, so a smaller name like this can languish a bit. 

WATCH

Pretty deep support around $47, right where it is now. Recent chart shows how it went nowhere for a while, so the break is significant. Energy's been hit dramatically.

TOP PICK

Predictable. Smaller P&C insurance. Pretty stable chart. ROE has an exceptionally bright future because of how well the business is run. Topline growth over 9% in recent earnings, and really good expense management. Yield is 1.21%.

(Analysts’ price target is $64.30)
TOP PICK

He added to it yesterday, based on how it was acting. Support ~$500. Chart has beat the S&P in all timeframes. Massive cash hoard. In markets like these, why not get some help from people who have a great legacy track record? Even once Warren's gone, the successors will follow his guiding principles. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $514.33)
TOP PICK

Brand strength, pricing power, geographic diversification. Big potential expansion in coffee. Really gets local culture. Chart shows a bit of resistance at this level, and we want to see it get through that. Whole chart is decent. Down less than the market these last few days. Beverage sector is pretty defensive and predictable. Metrics look pretty good. Yield is 2.82%.

(Analysts’ price target is $75.38)
COMMENT
Second day of 5% or more losses one the NYSE

We could be on one of three paths: 1) This is a quick bear market (i.e. Covid 2020), 2) year 2000 bear market when tech was laid to waste for a long time, or 3) the big kahuna of October 1987 when the market went down hard on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday then harder on Black Monday, falling 22%. Fortunately, we saw an excellent set of employment numbers, which may make it less likely that a stock market crash will lead to a recession, but if Trump stays stubborn and does nothing to lessen the damage the last few days, he will not be constructive (though contain his anger). None of this has to happen. If Europe moves against our tech companies with tariffs on Monday, we could see another crash, like Black Monday.

COMMENT

They report Monday. The last quarter when they offered guidance, the stock got hammered. Apparel has been a mixed bag.

COMMENT

They report Tuesday. He likes their deal in which they go private. Let's see if things have gotten better or if there is buyer's remorse.

DON'T BUY

They report Wednesday, and he expects awful numbers, because the company has warned the street. Is busy still weak or weaker since their last report? He worries that the travel bull market is completely done, especially if we go into a recession.

DON'T BUY

They report Wednesday. They can't be sure of the impact of tariffs on their products like Mexican beer. They already are challenged by the weight-loss drugs and the health trend. He suspects the immigration crackdown has hurt, because some of their customers are Hispanic.

COMMENT

They report Thursday. When new cars get tariffed, it usually means more demand for used ones. But this stock is no longer cheap at 23x 2025 PE.  It may be worth owning if Trump stubbornly keeps his tariffs, but you don't want to own anything cars in a recession.

DON'T BUY

Friday kicks off bank earnings season, a sector that has been crushed, because Wall Street expects a downturn in the economy. JPM is down from 14x to 11x, and shares from $280 to $210, -7.48% today alone. An incredible fall.