Today, The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) and Javed Mirza commented about whether PFE-N, PEY-T, TVE-T, BB-T, ABX-T, XGD-T, CJT-T, VRN-T, CSU-T, CHP.UN-T, H-T, MRU-T, BTO-T, CNQ-T, DOL-T, CLS-T, TD-T, TOU-T, TRP-T, GEN-N, VEON-Q, PANW-N, AEM-T, DAL-N, BBW-N are stocks to buy or sell.
He's cautious heading into 2025 and expects a correction at some point. Indicators tell him this, including excessive euphoria, as seen in the put-call ratio (investors were buying a lot of calls recently). Typically, markets are bullish for 3-6 months, then corrects for 1-3 months. He thinks we're building towards that correction. The S&P last pulled back in August. He expects the S&P to pull back to 5,850 to correct the excesses, perhaps in January.
The 2024 chart is choppy, but there have been a series of higher lows. In mid-October 2023, we started a new 3-5 cyclical bull market, into the second half of 2025 or first half of 2026, but that's where the extreme danger zone is. As we get deeper into the cycle, the economy is running on all cyclinders which is when energy and materials are bid up. He remains constructive on energy. He's also bullish on natural gas.
First, what is your time frame? Weekly? Monthly? He looks at moving average divergence (MD), relative strength (be long the winners, short the losers), and what institutions are buying or selling, because they influence markets so much. Also, what market are we in, bear or bull? In a bull, a rally usually lasts 3-6 months with the up legs bigger and the pullbacks shorter; in a bear, the down legs are bigger, the bounces shorter.
The chart has been in an uptrend since early 2022, but is weakening now. It just moved below its 50-day moving average. He's cautious about DOL, though it's been a super performer in recent years. There's been institutional selling in the past month or so. Expect more downside in the coming weeks, down to its 200-day moving average. Maybe buy in January and February on pullbacks.
We reiterate BBW as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings beat expectations as margins increased, and EPS expanded by 38% thanks to 17 new store openings in Q3. We like that cash reserves are growing as shares are bought back. It trades at 12 earnings and supports a ROE of 42%. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $32) to $39, looking to achieve $54.50 -- upside potential of 18%. Yield 1.7% Season's Greetings!
(Analysts’ price target is $54.53)