TOP PICK

Good to look at the 1-year chart. A breakout from a base most always results in a nicely trending stocks. Previous resistance will become the new support, and you'd watch to see if it breaks that. Yield is 0.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $660.50)
TOP PICK
All-time high late September.

Higher highs so far, and we're testing the last low. Overall trend is good. He's still buying, has done 2 legs of 2% each so far. Yield is 1.5%.

Note that if the market turns down in a big way this will be one of its victims, as industrials will be one of the first to fall. 

(Analysts’ price target is $397.81)
COMMENT
Macro picture.

Macros are really important to his team. His business partner does the fundamentals, but the macros they do are largely technical. It's the way he looks at risk. He tries to quantitatively measure how much risk the market has by looking at market sentiment, market breadth, and other big picture stuff.

When he sees that the market has a higher risk profile, he'll raise some cash and really start paying attention to the trend, expecting it to break down. Once he sees that, he starts moving out very aggressively.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Never buy a stock when it spikes, even NVDA which he likes. But today when NVDA opened deep into the red, that was the sign to buy. The stocked rallied hard today.

COMMENT

It can do well in 2025 if the CEO executes. He hasn't bought it though. Shares have bottomed.

BUY

The CEO has righted the ship and the company is getting a lot of orders.

RISKY

Is up 167% this year, though -15% the past month. Let it come in a little more--wait until January. Buy some, then let it come in further, then buy more. CAVA is very volatile.

DON'T BUY

Is -36%. Because they're brick-and-mortar, their viability is in question.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Yesterday, they announced a 2025 forecast that was a tad short, but crop prices are in good shape, which encourages farmers to buy farming equipment. Shares are down 20% this year.

DON'T BUY

It's been problem after problem for them. Theft is forcing them to lose market share to Amazon. They're closing their worst-performing stores, opening health clinics and double-down on their non-drugstore businesses like Aetna and health insurance benefits manager. They have more than 900 medic clinics and 200 Oak Street health clinics. (Walgreens is reducing their clinics and Walmart got rid of all their clinics, because they can't find workers.) CVS bought Aetna 6 years ago, but managed care providers have been struggling for 1.5 years as people catch on post-Covid surgeries, which means paying out for those procedures. Meanwhile, Aetna dropped the ball on Medicare advantage plans for seniors; the plans were too cheap, which attracted many more customers, so people are using more healthcare services as the government is getting stingier with payments. Poor performance forced the CEO to be fired last October. Shares down -25% in December alone (healthcare stocks have fallen out of favour since the election and the Humana CEO murder). Then, Trump threatens to cut out the middlemen in health insurance. Just two days ago, the Justice Department slapped them with a lawsuit over controlled substances, which he thinks is damning. Their balance sheet is weak.

BUY

The CEO is doing a great job. It trades cheaper than JNJ or Pfizer. Good growth.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It's rallied in recent months, up since earnings, but trades at 34x PE. Likes it.

BUY

He always says, own, don't trade this, but if you are overweight this, the sell it down to a 5% weighting in your portfolio.

BUY
An entry point to add to this?

Now. This morning, competitor Novo Nordisk announced a competitive new drug, but it disappointed the public. This left LLY best in class. Shares rose 1.35% today, though he thinks it should have gained more.

DON'T BUY

Good yield, buyback and yield, but can't recommend it, because he doesn't see the price of oil hitting $100.