Today, Peter Hodson and Stockchase Insights commented about whether CAE-T, CTS-T, DHR-N, ROAD-Q, CLBT-Q, FOUR-N, SMCI-Q, TOI-X, MDI-T, GIL-T, LSPD-N, SPB-T, PKI-T, TOU-T, POW-T, GWO-T, CP-T, DRX-T, WELL-T, TD-T, PRL-T, CLS-T, RUS-T, LIF-T are stocks to buy or sell.
It is hard to like a stock that has cut it dividend by 75%. Weather (milder winters) is an issue for companies involved in the heating business. Its revenue base is not growing as fast as before. The stock has done nothing for a long time. It's interesting that15% is owned by Brookfield. Propane is a very necessary product.
The stock went straight up after its IPO and it used its highly valued paper to make many acquisitions. But the market changed, the stock went way down and acquisitions would have to be made with much less share value. There was an expectation that it might be the next Shopify but this didn't happen. They're now keeping the balance sheet OK and doing a strategic review since the company might be sold. It has a premium because of that possibility.
Any drilling company connected with the mining industry won't get a big multiple because of the cyclicality of the industry. It's boom or bust. It is a pretty well run company with fine operations and satisfied customers. It is interesting to note that mining companies are in great shape with lots of money pouring in with the rising price of gold. There is lots of M&A activity. It is just a matter of time before money starts trickling down to Major Drilling so there is good potential. An increase in the multiple and increase in earnings at the same is pretty powerful.
It follows the Constellation Software model. It is European focussed which is perceived to be a problem and North America is more in favour at the moment. However it could spin the European situation into a positive situation. Their accretive acquisition model should be good. Don't look at the quarters but instead rely on management and the overall strategy.
It is involved in payment processing technology and is one of the competitors to LSPD. It is growing at 30% per year and has a good balance sheet. It has a great niche in the restaurant and hotels business and is starting to expand into gaming and other areas. Has been approached at least twice in the last two years for a potential takeover. The valuation is good at 26X earnings which is pretty low for a tech company. It has just been added to the S&P 400 small cap Index. He considers it undervalued. Buy 21 Hold 3 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $109.46)It is very good at tracing data for the police, military and other agencies. One of the best use cases for AI is looking at data. This is so good for the overwhelming amount of info that police have to look at. CLBT scrubs the info to find clues and patterns and can find information quickly. It has $400 million in cash along with very good growth. With a market cap of less than $4 billion it is much smaller than other companies in the same field. The customer base gives confidence in the company. Buy 8 Hold 0 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $22.43)They do basic work such as fixing roads and bridges and they do it very very well. This is good as an infrastructure play since money has to be spent on infrastructure projects. Recently it did a very big acquisition, $800 000 which is 20% of its market cap, but the market likes it a lot. This has accelerated the growth rate and boosted the revenue forecast. It is not cheap but has a great business profile. good backlog, good management and makes good acquisitions. It specializes in markets throughout the U.S. sunbelt. Buy 3 Hold 2 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $91.67)DHR is expensive at 28x forward earnings and it has not been able to fully recover to its all-time highs in 2021 when it traded above $330. DHR has been trading quite choppily since. It is flat year-to-date but up 11% over the last year. We do think that DHR could be a good long-term healthcare play and some of the current risks/fears due to the new US administration may be slightly overstated for healthcare stocks.
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Average target is now $5.04. Post-earnings, Scotiabank lowered its rating from $5 to $4. At less than 9X earnings it certainly can still be called cheap. Q3 results showed EPS of 12c, beating estimates of 9.5c. Revenue of $630.7M slightly missed estimates of $639.7M. EBITDA missed estimates by 14%. Guidance was mostly inline with estimates. Q3 sales fell 8.9% and we certainly would prefer to see this trend reverse. The CC did not add a whole lot. The CEO/Board transition is ahead of plan. CTS continues to return capital to shareholders (buybacks and dividends). CTS is not seeing attractive acquisitions and prefers to buyback its stock over making a mis-priced deal. With rising cash flow conversion the balance sheet is in much better shape, with net debt less than six months of cash flow now. This 'should' help the valuation multiple over time.
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CAE EPS of 24c beat estimates of 19c; revenue of $1.13B beat estimates of $1.08B. Backlog is now a record $18B. We have liked the stock historically, but it has had lots of execution issues. It has high market share, but we always thought it should be more profitable overall, considering its moat and duopolistic industry with really just one other serious global competitor. We would consider 25X earnings fairly priced and would prefer an exit into something more reliable.
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Company Highlight - Revolve Group (RVLV):
Revolve Group (RVLV) is a next-generation online fashion retailer with a focus on Millennial and Gen Z consumers, primarily catering to female audiences. It mostly operates through two brands: REVOLVE and FWRD. The company has built a large, engaged audience through collaborations with influencers, and its proprietary algorithms analyze consumer behaviour to help manage its inventory. In the past few years, it has seen sluggish growth as e-commerce growth normalized and consumers returned to physical stores, and its margins also came under pressure due to inflation. However, its brand presence among the younger generations remains strong, and with inflationary pressures easing, its margins are expected to improve, helping its stock price.
RVLV is up significantly on the year, up 107% year-to-date and 161% on a one-year basis. It is a small-cap stock ($2.4 billion market cap) and while it is not cheap (47X forward earnings multiple), its forward earnings growth is expected to average around 27%. It is profitable, but its profit margins have compressed in recent years as higher logistics and fulfillment costs and inflationary pressures have taken hold. Although, these pressures are beginning to ease, and its core Revolve segment is beginning to see a strong rebound in demand, helping future margin expectations.
RVLV has a strong history of beating earnings estimates, and we can see its profits have begun to rebound in recent quarters. We feel that with inflationary pressures easing and the potential for lower interest rates, that RVLV can continue to benefit from a strong US economy.
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