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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Following recently released earnings showing a 26% increase in operating earnings and a 16% increase in loan originations, we reiterate the leader in Canadian sub-prime loans as a TOP PICK.  It currently trades at 11x earnings, 2.5x book value and supports a 25% ROE.  We note that their debt is rising modestly, so we recommend trailing up the stop (from $150) to $165, looking to achieve $235 -- upside potential over 30%.  Yield 2.5%

(Analysts’ price target is $235.56)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate ADBE as a TOP PICK.  Analysts are confident the inclusion of AI into its latest product offerings can recharge sales growth.  We like that cash reserves are growing as shares are repurchased and the ROE is 25%.  We continue to recommend a stop at $450, looking to achieve $612 -- upside potential over 15%.  Yield 0%

(Analysts’ price target is $612.02)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

RGS operates and manages hair salons with brands like Super Cuts across North America.   The company has been consolidating its foot print, closing less profitable locations, to increase its efficiency and has introduced a reward program and smoother in-store experience.  Recently reported EPS were up over 30% and cash reserves are growing.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $15, looking to achieve $24 -- upside potential over 25%.  Yield 0% 

(Analysts’ price target is $40.00)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 07/23, Up 5.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with CHP.UN has triggered its stop at $13.75.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 06/24, Up 6.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with ING has triggered its stop at $15.50.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 08/24, Down 22%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with APA has triggered its stop at $22.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  

premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 12/24, Down 5.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with EQX is stagnating.  To remain disciplined we recommend trailing up the stop (from $6.00) to $6.60 at this time.  

COMMENT
MSCI All-World Index ex-US has had a gain of only 4% YTD.

Yes. Looking at that index, equity markets outside the US have been down 8% since September. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is up 5% since election day and about 25% YTD. Significantly different performance. Why the difference? We just had Q3 reporting season in the US, and about 50% beat on revenue expectations, and about 75% beat earnings expectations. Fundamentally, things are still going quite well for US equity markets.

Still, listening to the conference calls, there is some concern about the US consumer. Specifically, the lower-income consumer. People have been spending Covid savings, so savings rates now may not be what they used to be. 

Also concerns about whether US equity markets are getting ahead of themselves since the election. The new administration has talked about lower taxes and deregulation, but tariffs keep coming up. Those will hurt imports into the US and will impact a subset of US companies.

COMMENT
Portfolio positioning.

He cautions investors against trying to time the markets as a whole. A good time to focus on quality companies, ones you know will be there through a full economic cycle. These things come and go. Few things are inevitable in investing, but you know that at some point we're going to have a recession. You want to own companies that, going into that, are going to be strong with conservative balance sheets.

By trying to time things, you can miss some of the best days. For example, the day right after the election was one of the best days we've had all year. If you were sitting out because of uncertainty going into that election, that would have significantly impacted your returns.

DON'T BUY

Too small for his portfolios. In Canada, rolling up medical practices with a strategy of using technology to reduce administrative burden. In US, has a GI line, as well as virtual mental health and women's care; may spin off the latter two. Valuation ~40x forward PE, rich. He can't get behind that valuation, but progress will be interesting to watch.

DON'T BUY

Concerns regarding tariffs on components and whether Trump will expand public transit. Making progress on debt, but it's still too high. Supply chain issues. Too many questions to step in:  growth, costs, debt.

PARTIAL SELL

Price increases will increase margins and revenue, keep an eye out for any subscriber churn. Recently reported that margins expanded considerably. Valuation too rich. Not a horrible idea to take some profits. Great product and competitive moat.

HOLD

Concerns in pharmaceutical segment, as one particular drug facing patent cliff next year. Talc litigation still an overhang; once done, can focus on turning around core operations. Diversified, likes the pipeline. You can afford to be patient.

WATCH

Its businesses depend on consumers, so some growth might be capped. Pullback could be a time to look at it, but has already done pretty well over the medium term. Steady-eddy with potentially high valuation. Keep an eye on.

DON'T BUY

Pulled back based on underlying demand. Businesses are pretty steady-eddy. Infrastructure buildout would help, but questions surround new US administration. Interest rates ticking up means home renos have ticked down. Don't step in here.

Hurricanes (needing lumber replacement) can't be predicted from one period to the next. Investors want to see predictable, recurring revenue and cashflow.