Today, Teal Linde and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether CJR.B-T, ZWU-T, ZMMK-T, ZST-T, BCE-T, ZPAY-T, ZWH-T, ZWS-T, ZWP-T, ZWE-T, GOOG-Q, TD-T, PATH-N, PD-T, META-Q, NVDA-Q, DOL-T, WFG-T, TOU-T, AMZN-Q, DAL-N, RY-T, CIGI-T, BBD.B-T, ENB-T, MFC-T, TD-T, BCE-T, ESI-T, FTS-T are stocks to buy or sell.
The penalty imposed by the US and the cap on growth led to these shares sliding hard. It now trades at 9.6x forward PE or 18% below its peers. So, the selling is overdone and he sees at least a partial recovery ahead. TD can still grows its Canadian market and capital securities business at 5% growth. TD ranks third in profitability on the basis of ROE .
(Analysts’ price target is $84.18)Among the megatechs, this is the most attractive in terms of earnings, value and consistency. Peers like MSFT trade at over 30x PE vs. GOOG's 19.5x, while GOOG grows around 11%. If the US breaks up GOOG, he would buy shares of these spin-offs, like YouTube or cloud.
(Analysts’ price target is $209.43)They are. Look at DJT as a benchmark. There was a massive move up a few weeks ago, last week there was a lot of selling, and today it was weaker to start the day but up now. There's a lot of uncertainty around the outcome, and it's too close to call.
For his portfolio, he looked at what was cheap. Definitely some stocks have been beaten up, as in the green energy space. There, the risk/return is compelling at this point. If we get a Blue victory, it'll be short-term positive. On the other side, for things that were expensive that got priced in to a Trump victory, he's bought some puts on or taken more defensive moves. Such as regional banks in the US.
Unless you're really actively seeking to outperform the market on a very short-term basis, you actually shouldn't be trading. You should be setting your portfolio for a much longer-term outcome, ignoring the noise.
Geopolitical tensions are up, OPEC deferred output increases, plus rhetoric out of Iran on attacking Israel. So energy markets were good this morning, which is an implication for inflation. So many uncertainties, can't forecast them with any degree of confidence. It's fun for trading day to day to try to figure these things out but, longer term, portfolios really shouldn't be touched around an event like this.
Virtually certain that it will cut by 25 bps. What they say in the press conference about the future will be important. The previous cut at an aggressive 50 bps surprised the market, and it priced in a dramatic number of rate cuts. But economic data since has been a bit hotter on inflation and growth, so all those bets have walked back.
We'll hear from J. Powell on Wednesday, unencumbered by the election even if we don't know its outcome.
If we get tariffs, US dollar will be stronger. If we don't get tariffs, or they're less aggressive or fewer, USD will be weaker. The USD vs. the euro under Trump might get down to $1.02-1.04, from the current $1.09. Under Harris, who is a bit less hawkish in terms of tariffs, we might see it at $1.12-1.14. This is all in the context of the next 6-12 months.
The dollar will move, and that's one of the trades. We saw a stronger dollar, but it's weakened over the last 48 hours.
Right now, this is his preference. Going over the history of this ETF, the extreme was $1.50-1.60 CAD to euro. So anything above $1.50-1.55, you'd want to be hedged. Anything lower than $1.35-1.40, you want to be exposed to the foreign currency.
Recently we got back above $1.50. If it keeps going higher, that's fine. When you're hedging the CAD relative to Europe, their interest rates are lower than ours, and so you actually earn extra doing it.
He had some of both this year, but right now ZWE is his preference. Going over the history of this ETF, the extreme was $1.50-1.60 CAD to euro. So anything above $1.50-1.55, you'd want to be hedged. Anything lower than $1.35-1.40, you want to be exposed to the foreign currency.
Recently we got back above $1.50. If it keeps going higher, that's fine. When you're hedging the CAD relative to Europe, their interest rates are lower than ours, and so you actually earn extra doing it.
Simple answer is whether your account is taxable or not. If in a registered account, then the tax treatment doesn't matter whether the dividends come internationally or not.
Some of the best dividend payers are here in Canada, where you have exposure to banks, lifecos, and energy names. Put those in your non-registered account. He'd argue why are you investing for dividends in a registered account? There, you should invest for growth because of the tax treatment.
Internationally, you have foreign withholding tax without the superior tax treatment given to Canadian dividends. When investing internationally, his preference is to seek dividends in a tax-efficient way, and he likes the covered call overlay strategy. The covered call tax treatment is by way of capital gain, so you get a more efficient income internationally.
BMO has the biggest suite of covered call strategies around the world. There's ZWP and ZWE as a way to play European markets, and he loves both (though ZWE is the way to play at the current time). For US high-dividend covered-call strategies, ZWS or ZWH are really good (one hedged, one not).
A momentum stock and the PE ratio is compelling. Four companies comprise 46% of their revenues, megatech companies preparing for an AI future and spending a lot. His concern is, what happens when these companies feel they've ordered enough chips? The chip business is very boom and bust. NVDA will go higher, but he can't time the top. Can be treacherous. Watch the budgets of their biggest customers.