PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 18/23, Up 38%)

The rate-sensitives sold off hard with rising rates, creating a temporary opportunity. Get paid a huge dividend to wait. Yield still around 6.5-7%. Still likes it today. Great, stable business for those looking for income.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 18/23, Up 12%)

Being diversified helped it withstand all the pressure. Never hitting on all cylinders. Plans for future involve increasing investment in parks, and he'd prefer less cashflow intensive. Turnaround not playing out as he anticipated. An incredibly discretionary expense. 

He sold on strength. Not ready to look at it again. You need to have a long time horizon, and be willing to accept that the business will be more cyclical in future.

BUY
Stock price not stabilized yet.

In a tough spot, media has made it the whipping boy. Every single US bank has problems with money laundering, it's so pervasive. The fine came at the best time, as it was sitting on the most capital of any Canadian bank. Everyone knew what was coming, stock's been drifting lower for quite some time.

He owns it for the income, not the growth. He'd plug your nose and buy here, knowing it could go a bit lower. No one wants it on their books so there's been indiscriminate selling, which creates the value for you.

Compare this to WFC, which was in a whole heap of trouble due to problematic sales practices. Return since then is ~150%. The TD scenario is different. In these mature type of businesses, you'll get your dividend and a small bit of earnings growth. TD now has the lowest multiple of any Canadian bank, but will that be the case in 5 years? They all re-rate, and he thinks this will end up being quite a good return.

WAIT
For a new retiree.

Peer-leading multiple, around 14x earnings. Very well run. Likes it, but valuation keeps him away. For new money, hunt for more value.

WAIT
For a new retiree.

Peer-leading multiple, around 14x earnings. Very well run. Likes it, but valuation keeps him away. For new money, hunt for more value.

BUY
For a new retiree.

Split a new investment between this and TD, instead of the high-multiple RY. You'll get your dividends and a bit of growth. If you can get something on the multiple over time, that could add quite a significant amount to your return.

WATCH

Great business. Recently highlighted new AI features that will be incorporated. Sold off on fears of competitive pressures. Single-suite product, even though it has different features. Not willing to go out on a limb and say buy. Watch and wait; need more to unfold to see how strong its competitive position is.

WAIT

Phenomenal business, ticks every box but one. Great business economics, great management team, very strong balance sheet, amazing growth potential. Trades north of 30x, so don't chase, leg in. Wait for even more of a pullback. You'll always get your chance, as markets are volatile.

DON'T BUY

Well run, but very cyclical. Its collection of assets is not worthy of the multiple. Rail is the most efficient way to ship freight. In this higher inflationary environment, he'd prefer a rail such as CNR or CP.

BUY

Rail is the most efficient way to ship freight. In this higher inflationary environment he'd prefer a rail, and CP is his preference. Wide moat, massive cost advantages to choosing this method of transport, tough to replace.

WEAK BUY

Rail is the most efficient way to ship freight. In this higher inflationary environment he'd prefer a rail such as CNR or CP. CP is his preference. Wide moat, massive cost advantages to choosing this method of transport, tough to replace.

DON'T BUY

Tough spot. He wouldn't own now. If we potentially head into a recession, this will be one of the first companies impacted. Business economics are quite good, positioned well with the EV transition.

SELL

Keeps going up. Business has totally morphed into value-added parts in the semiconductor space. Riding the wave of massive growth of all chipmakers. Valuation seems reasonable. Remember that semis are cyclical; ASML, for example, went down 20% yesterday. Hot stocks always have potential to re-rate.

Quite well run, but not ready to be there. His preference is TSM, but its valuation is not attractive either.

WAIT

Massive growth of all chipmakers. Remember that semis are cyclical; ASML, for example, went down 20% yesterday. Hot stocks always have potential to re-rate. His preference, but valuation is not attractive right now.

COMMENT
Semiconductors and customer concentration risk.

In this sector, you can't avoid it. It affects every single player. Look at AMZN and all the data centre providers. There are only so many customers. TSM also has massive concentration risk. The whole supply chain is massively vertically integrated, so there's customer concentration risk and supply chain risk the whole way through. If you want to be in the space, you have to accept it.