Today, Gordon Reid and Stockchase Insights commented about whether XRX-N, INTU-Q, PNG-X, CVS-N, COST-Q, PFE-N, AMZN-Q, HD-N, TSLA-Q, T-N, AVGO-Q, MRK-N, TOL-N, LLY-N, INTC-Q, NVDA-Q, SBUX-Q, V-N, IBM-N, DIS-N, UBER-N, MCK-N, CXT-N, GM-N, FCX-N, DESP-N are stocks to buy or sell.
Seeing resilience in the stock price right now. Fundamentals are hard to determine. Lots of mistakes in company management in the past. Pricing power not great. Could be a good dividend investment, but hard to justify when compared to other options in the markets. Overall, would not recommend investing.
Excellent business, and would recommend investing - even today. Very strong tech in A.I., eCommerce and web services. Strong management team with excellent brand value. Fulfillment centers are starting to turn profitable. Expecting higher earnings going forward. Would recommend holding for the long term.
Net income rose 31% year-over-year to $2.6M. Revenue rose 67%(!) year-over-year to $22.8M. Product revenue increased 83% year-over-year driven by increased sales across key products. Adjusted EBITDA increased 79% in the quarter to $5.4M. PNG maintained its outlook for the full year 2024 expecting revenue between $90M to $100M and Adjusted EBITDA in the $18.0M to $24.0M range. This outlook is, "driven by contracts in hand and reflects strength across both our Product and Service groups addressing defense and offshore energy customers." Another very strong quarter for PNG continuing its run and the stock has hit another high today.
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INTU is trading at 35.8x Forward P/E. The business is expected to grow its topline organically by around 12% over the next few years. INTU is a very high-quality business that generates solid, growing cash flow year after year, but the valuation is not cheap. We like the stock and we are okay to average into INTU over time, but we would not be buying too aggressively here. It reported last night: EPS of $1.99 beat estimates of $1.85; revenue of $3.18B beat estimates of $3.08B. Intuit exceeded fiscal 4Q consensus on revenue growth at Credit Karma (up 14%) and its Small Business and Self-Employed (SBSE) segment (up 20%), with Online Services also a driver -- up 19% on payroll, payments and Mailchimp. QuickBooks Online accounting sales were solid (up 17%), fueled by customer additions, higher prices and product mix shift. The company set fiscal 2025 sales-growth guidance of 12-13% vs. 12% consensus, with SBSE at 16-17%, Consumer Group (TurboTax) at 7-8% and Credit Karma at 5-8%. Management stated a long-term sales view for SBSE of 15-20%, emphasizing average revenue per customer gains on an upmarket push. Credit Karma sales growth (up 14%) was a highlight, with auto insurance accounting for 6 percentage points, personal loans for 5, credit card for 2 and CK Money for 1.
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XRX has really struggled, with the stock down 43% this year. It is very cheap at 6X earnings, but is likely a value trap. Debt is very high, at about 6X cash flow. Sales are in decline, and are about half the level they were a decade ago. It is still profitable, however. EPS is half the level of 2016. The dividend payout ratio is only about 30%. The dividend was cut in 2017. Its small size and debt adds a lot of risk here. Market cap is only $1.3B, down from near $20B decades ago. It is expected to grow in the 2% to 3% range over the next couple of years. We would not consider the dividend to be safe, though with rates decline its debt burden becomes a bit less onerous. Still, not our type of stock and we would not suggest it.
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ETF Highlight: XBB
XBB provides investors with exposure to the Canadian investment grade bond market. It is highly liquid at $7.625 billion in net assets, has an MER of 0.10%, pays a 3% yield, and is up 9.4% over the last year. XBB’s portfolio is primarily comprised of government bonds (federal 39.91% & provincial 33.28%) but financials are the next largest holding at 9.54%. Two important metrics being a bond ETF are the effective duration at 7.26 years and weighted average maturity of 9.98 years. These two metrics tell us that XBB’s holdings have a medium-term tilt. XBB is a longstanding ETF which has an annualized return of 4.48% since inception at the end of December 2000.
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Very successful A.I. play. Stock has tripled over the past year, so valuation is very high right now. Would recommend investors wait before investing. Very strong tech stack, but also has services side of business. Would look for cheaper A.I. options in the markets.