Stockchase Insights
Xerox
XRX-N
DON'T BUY
Aug 23, 2024
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
XRX has really struggled, with the stock down 43% this year. It is very cheap at 6X earnings, but is likely a value trap. Debt is very high, at about 6X cash flow. Sales are in decline, and are about half the level they were a decade ago. It is still profitable, however. EPS is half the level of 2016. The dividend payout ratio is only about 30%. The dividend was cut in 2017. Its small size and debt adds a lot of risk here. Market cap is only $1.3B, down from near $20B decades ago. It is expected to grow in the 2% to 3% range over the next couple of years. We would not consider the dividend to be safe, though with rates decline its debt burden becomes a bit less onerous. Still, not our type of stock and we would not suggest it. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
It's hitting new highs. Big cash flow, buying back stocks and raising their dividend. They're also developing new products, trading around 9x cash flow. All this in a slowly declining business. A defensive stock that he really likes.
It is a defensive company with a fantastic management team. They are in a no growth world for them. It is trading at 9 times earnings, massive free cash flow, huge share buybacks and increasing dividend. He thinks it will outperform in tough times.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly XRX has been a laggard during the pandemic as office workers have been remotely working. As employees begin a return to the office environment demand for the company's products will begin to return. Meanwhile the stock is quietly building a solid foundation. Carl Icahn has been accumulating shares steadily through August and purchased another $3 million worth of the stock so far in September. In its latest earnings the company produced $0.15 EPS, when analysts expected a breakeven, even in the face of a 35% drop in revenues. An area of future growth is in their liquid metal 3D printing solution -- allowing companies to manufacture much needed parts with off the shelf alloys. On a measured move basis, we see upside to $25 -- almost 30% upside. It is trading at 74% of book value, with a low historic PE, and offers an attractive yield that is backed by a 28% payout ratio. We would trade this with a $15 stop loss. Yield 5.20% (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)
(A Top Pick Sep 17/20, Up 17.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX is progressing well. We are recommending trailing up the stop to $21 (currently at $15). This will all but guarantee a minimum return exceeding 7%, based on our initial recommended entry.
(A Top Pick Sep 17/20, Up 12.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX has triggered our stop at $$21. We recommend covering the remaining position at this point. Combined with the recommendation to cover 50% back in December, this has achieved an overall return of 12.7%.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly XRX is the US leader in print management services, holding over 20% of the market share. Along with that success, the company has been accelerating its digital presence and automation processes, 3D printing and cleantech. Recently reported EPS of $0.47 easily beat analyst calls for $0.37. Revenues were up 22% and margins expanded, creating a jump of $198 million in free cash flow. One can only expect these to expand further as schools and businesses return post-pandemic. It trades at 17x earnings compared to peers at 40x and is trading under book value. It pays an excellent dividend, backed by a payout ratio that is under 75% of cash flow (under 45% based next year earnings expectations). We would buy this with a stop loss at $18.50, looking to achieve $30 -- upside potential over 22%. Yield 4.17% (Analysts’ price target is $53.75)
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate XRX as a TOP PICK. The US leader in print management services, holds over 20% of the market share. Along with that success, the company has been accelerating its digital presence and automation processes, 3D printing and cleantech. It trades at 15x earnings - half the value of its peers and it is presently trading below book value. It pays a solid dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 75% of cash flow. We would buy this with a stop loss at $18.50, looking to achieve $30 -- upside potential over 42%. Yield 4.85% (Analysts’ price target is $53.50)
(A Top Pick Oct 13/21, Down 9.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX has triggered its stop at $18.50. We recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with our previous buy recommendation, this will result in a net investment loss of 17%. We will look for better opportunties.
XRX has really struggled, with the stock down 43% this year. It is very cheap at 6X earnings, but is likely a value trap. Debt is very high, at about 6X cash flow. Sales are in decline, and are about half the level they were a decade ago. It is still profitable, however. EPS is half the level of 2016. The dividend payout ratio is only about 30%. The dividend was cut in 2017. Its small size and debt adds a lot of risk here. Market cap is only $1.3B, down from near $20B decades ago. It is expected to grow in the 2% to 3% range over the next couple of years. We would not consider the dividend to be safe, though with rates decline its debt burden becomes a bit less onerous. Still, not our type of stock and we would not suggest it.
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