Today, Colin Cieszynski and Stockchase Insights commented about whether MPCT.UN-T, TSU-T, SHOP-T, COST-Q, K-T, ZST.L-T, X-T, MG-T, ZUT-T, CPX-T, NPI-T, FFH-T, TVE-T, KEY-T, SMCI-Q, AXP-N, MA-N, BCE-T, DOL-T, GM-N, AAPL-Q, MMM-N, SWK-N, PANW-N, TECK.B-T, BNS-T, CNQ-T, CSU-T, EQX-T, DIS-N are stocks to buy or sell.
All utilities had a big selloff when rates were rising in 2022 and 2023. Then, as interest rates went nowhere, so did the stocks, just collecting the dividend. BOC has cut twice, Fed is probably going to start. Utilities have come up off lows, but haven't started to move up yet.
This one has been starting to pick up.
If you're interested in the utilities sector, this is a good one to look at. All utilities had a big selloff when rates were rising in 2022 and 2023. Then, as interest rates went nowhere, so did the stocks, just collecting the dividend. BOC has cut twice, Fed is probably going to start. Utilities have come up off lows, but haven't started to move up yet.
There's certainly that potential there for more demand for power generation as we get into AI. It's steady growth, but a mature sector. Catalysts could be AI or EVs really taking off. Influenced quite a bit by swings in interest rates.
For stocks that are really weak, he looks for an opportunity to rotate into something stronger and showing better RSI. Rather than wait around and hope something bounces. If the stock comes back around, then he'll be there when it does. When you invest based on relative strength, you don't stick around for the long term.
The red zone tells him that these are the stocks where capital is leaving and to avoid. More often than not, we've seen several times in this earnings season alone where red zone stocks have put in poor earnings and then plunged afterwards. Think Ford, INTC, and others.
In his portfolios, he can go between 100% equity and 100% cash. When things go awry, he can sell equities and go to cash. For him, this means short-term money markets and bonds. This ETF holds bonds with maturities of less than 1 year. It's like cash that you earn a bit of money on. Yield is 4.9%.
A call on being conservative. He started to see a bit of weakness in some of his indicators; understandable given how fast markets came down, combined with seasonality, economic outlook, and political cycle. A place to go with so many uncertainties out there.
This pick is the ".L" version with accumulating units; reinvests proceeds as interest comes in. More tax-efficient for non-registered accounts, such as cash and margin accounts. The plain vanilla ZST is good for registered accounts.
SHOP reported EPS of 26c beating estimates of 20c and growing from 14c in the year prior. Revenue was $2.05B growing 21% (or 25% adjusting for the sale of the logistics business) year-over-year and beating estimates of $2.01B. Q3 revenue growth forecast is in the low-to-mid 20% range where analysts projected $2B (approx 17% growth). Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased 22% to $67.2B. Merchant solutions increased 19% (to $1.5B) and subscription solutions increased 27% (to $563M) year-over-year. MRR increased 25% to $169M, driven by growth in merchants. Gross profit dollars grew 25% to $1.0B. Gross margin for the quarter was 51.1% compared to 49.3%. Free cash flow margin was 16% compared to 6% a year prior. This was a good 'get-right' quarter for SHOP following the prior weakness. Growth was driven by higher GMV, increased merchants, and increased penetration of Shopify Payments while profitability continued to expand. Guidance met expectations as well and we are happy with the results.
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EPS of 65c matched estimates; Revenue of $772M was nicely ahead of estimates. Operating ROE was 19.6% vs 19% expected. Sales rose 16%. Net investment income rose 42%. Book value increased 26.3% to $14.56. Operating ratio was 87.5%. Scotia raised its priced target from $62 to $63. We would consider the results good.
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We would consider it a decent update; the Trust is indeed making progress and the asset sales and liquidity have improved things. That being said, the equity value is likely quite overstated. The Toronto assets will likely see a writedown. Investors remain cautious, and the stock is down 42% YTD. Its small size adds risk, and a Bloomberg all-in default ratio is nearly 7%, which is very high. Principal repayments for 2024 are 'probably' OK, but there remains significant maturities over the next three years. Essentially, we would consider units a high-risk bet on the real estate markets in Ottawa and Toronto. While there is recovery potential under the right conditions, its small size, risk and lack of distribution may continue to keep investors away, so units might still lag. It is hard for us to endorse it still.
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Daily prices are not worth paying much attention to
We know investors — not traders — who check their stock prices hourly or even more often. Our company often gets questions along the lines of, “Why is this stock down two per cent today?” Nine times out of 10, we don’t know the answer. If there is no news, broker activity or macro event, then there is usually no defined reason for a stock to move, either up or down.
With no news, it might mean something, but you and I have no way of knowing if it does, and any speculation is just that — a guess. We like trends, certainly, but one day is not a trend. The time that investors spend looking at meaningless daily price movements could likely be better spent doing some research.
Now, if you intend to sell a stock, then yes, daily moves are more important. But if you are a long-term investor, constant price checks are a waste of time, most of the time.
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Remains very highly ranked within the Canadian universe on RSI, even with recent correction. Pulled back below $1500, retesting support around $1450. More support around $1350. Right now, he's holding and keeping an eye.