Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Given the large single-day decline, we do not think so. INTC has been slow to adapt in the race to produce AI chips. While the decline is aggressive and it is also displaying general weakness in the market today, INTC did record a double miss on EPS and revenue, with the EPS miss being very significant (2c vs 10c expected). Both revenue and EPS declined year-over-year as well. The company is implementing a $10B cost-cutting plan which should help in the future but at 28.5x forward earnings, we are not as interested. There is turnaround potential eventually, but we are not sure that will happen in the near term. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

BITO was the first US ETF that tracked Bitcoin. It uses futures contracts of Bitcoin, and this basically means that its tracking is inefficient and will often lag the actual price of bitcoin over time. 

On a year-to-date basis, BITO has declined 6%, while the price of bitcoin has increased 44%. A return gap of 50%. But, Bitcoin does not pay dividends, while BITO has a current distribution yield of 36%. This distribution yield has helped to bridge the 50% gap between the actual price of bitcoin and the year-to-date performance of BITO, but not entirely. So while the yield may seem enticing, the fund has lagged the actual performance of what it is tracking, and in the event of a decline in bitcoin, BITO is highly likely to underperform.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

It is a very tough decision. Sentiment of course is all negative, and the stock has lost $40B in value. But, headlines can still take it lower, and we are pretty sure more lawsuits are on the way. While we think it is getting interesting, we would still be cautious on overall position size, and conservative investors we think should trim some on risk alone. New buyers without a position we think could chip away on more weakness, slowly. In other words, we would see it as a HOLD right now, but only in a manageable position. It has $3B cash and some insurance, but is still at 56X earnings, and earnings growth is likely to fall off until this event is behind them. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Any stock can fall 50% — overnight:

This manta is great for us when we have a winning position and we let greed sink into our thinking. Suppose we have a three per cent stock position and it triples. Yippee, good for us. But if our other stocks don’t do well, we now have a nine per cent position in our winning stock.

Sure, we like to let winners run, but we remind ourselves that any equity can go down, sometimes by a lot. We don’t care if it is a bank, a giant conservative company, a tech company changing the world, or whatever — it can go down.

If we are lucky or smart enough to own a big winner, we ask ourselves how we would feel if our entire portfolio fell 4.5 per cent overnight (a 50 per cent decline of a nine per cent position). Generally, we would cry. This brings us back to the prudent management of position sizes. In such a scenario, we might take the nine per cent position and trim it to seven per cent. If we really like it and it does well, it is going to go back to nine per cent anyway.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

They just reported a bad quarter with lousy guidance and shares are sliding today. It's a recent position, but he won't panic. If we enter a recession, Amazon will gain market share in everything it is doing. He would buy this today, a great entry point. 

He just bought it. It's highly innovative and growing. Up and coming, like Lululemon many years ago and building their retail presence beyond shoes.

Commodities have been pulverized, so it's a good time to buy,

Shares are plummeting 25% today after reporting. The CEO made the wrong choice in building a foundry. Why? If you're building while still designing chips, you are competing with your customers. If you're a customer going in for foundry work, how do you know Intel won't prioritize their chips over yours, or steal intellectual property. But the CEO had few options.

He expects a good, not great, upgrade cycle in their phone in the back half of this year, but worries that this is priced in too much in shares. No, don't sell shares, but this a slight concern.

He knows the analyst and read that note--MS is ahead of its skiis. The message was not short MS, but go underweight the name.

A solid performer. Oil aren't getting phased out, but are cash flow juggernauts. XOM generated $17 billion of free cash in the first half of 2024 despite buying a company. Are buying back shares and pay a dividend of 3.3%. Natural gas prices are still depressed, but demand and prices will increase globally as we recover from high interest rates. Europe will buy LNG because it won't buy Russian oil.

11 of their cold-stacked rigs have been mothballed for a while but will return to operation soon.

Under the new CEO, their operating margins have been growing like crazy. AWS margins are 35% and this has been re-accelerating. E-commerce and ad business and topline all had slight misses. But EPS growth is still trending higher. This is a buying opportunity.

2025 will see a rebound in capital markets activity and underwriting and will benefit banks like GS. GS is up 24% though down 5% today. The FEd will cut rates in September, another tailwind.

They report Tuesday. Shares have lost momentum in the past few months. They need to focus on profits; gross bookings were up 20% in the last quarter.