PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 13/23, Up 6%)

A bit disappointing. Headwind from near-term, cyclical pressures as economy weakens and vet visits decline. Company sees itself as defensive -- people prioritize their pets, aging population, younger generation having pets instead of children. Competition on drugs, adverse press to dog pain management drug. Still likes longer, secular trend.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Very strong results yesterday, especially from AI chips. 10-for-1 stock split improves sentiment in short term. Great, high-quality name. Don't chase, wait for a pullback. Viable alternative to NVDA, but all have done so well, you need to wait.

Note that growth can still be positive, but once the rate itself slows, all these stocks will come down.

HOLD

She holds, but not as core holding. Had to increase loan loss provisions in US last quarter, and 2 consecutive quarters of that was not well received. Loan growth is slowing along with economy. Acquisition will work out long term. Doesn't see Canadian economy going into recession, so rate cuts should help. Yield is 5%.

BUY
BMO vs. TD -- both down, which one to buy?

She'd pick this one right now, trades at discount of 9x forward PE. She's owned for many years as a core holding and is sticking with it until she can assess growth potential in the US. No one knows exactly what the penalty will be. An asset cap would be almost worse than a penalty. 

It is still a Canadian bank, very profitable, increasing business from immigration, and with only 1/3 of revenues from US.

HOLD

Financial data, benchmark index sector. Likes the subscription nature of the sector, recurring revenue. Trades at a high multiple, and pulls back when market is down. See her Top Picks.

SELL ON STRENGTH
Bought at $79, took some profits earlier, now what at $159?

Pulled back. Perhaps chips are not considered as good as NVDA's. She doesn't play in the semiconductor sector, too cyclical and volatile. She'd rather play the hyper-scalers. Still momentum in the data centre buildout, but put your money elsewhere if the volatility is too much for you.

DON'T BUY

She'd rather own CAT, which she's been looking at. Go to the company that makes the machinery, rather than to the distributor.

WATCH

She's been looking at it. Global. Benefiting from US onshoring, buildout of semiconductor plants, and mining. Question of whether it's near peak earnings. Inventories seem pretty clean. She's waiting for stock to pull back more before deciding.

SELL
Bought at $125, now $170.

Transitioning to more services. Has done all right. Trades at 16x. Has to prove it can grow double-digit earnings on a sustainable basis before it gets recognition from market, and this is harder for such a large company. Higher rates are impacting customers' budgets, seeing softness.

HOLD

Holds it for client income, attractive yield over 8%. Going to wait it out. Thinks dividend safe. Not generating sufficient cashflow to pay for dividend, but company hasn't kept that a secret. Aware of shareholder base, adamant that dividend would be maintained. Eventually capex will go down, and will grow into payout ratio. Selling some assets. Rate cuts would be a tailwind.

Wireless competition has ramped up, but not cutthroat price wars. Immigration increases demand.

TOP PICK

An AI component from the MSFT deal, encouraging. She's owned it for a long time for exposure to the renewable sector, a secular trend. Interest rates have dampened things down, as debt servicing costs increase and cashflow gets discounted at a higher rate. Rates going down would be a tailwind. 

Global. Funding for projects comes from the Brookfield group. Active asset recycling -- buy cheap, develop it to maturity, sell it for cash, redeploy that cash. Yield is 5.49%.

(Analysts’ price target is $40.21)
TOP PICK

High quality. With high interest rates, seeing weakness in terms of large projects. But things are starting to normalize. Looking ahead a year from now, interest rates will probably start trending down and historically low housing starts should improve. Recent acquisition of SRS diversifies its offerings.

Long-term trend is still positive. Over half US housing stock is over 40 years old, so if interest rates make it too costly to move, you have to do some repairs. Still lots of 18-35 year olds living at home, and they need to move to their own places. Immigration is positive as well. Attractive yield of 2.62%.

(Analysts’ price target is $374.94)
TOP PICK

Main business is doing ratings, which is facing a slowdown right now, but starting to see a pickup in capital markets activity. When bonds mature or get renewed, they have to be rated. Also does benchmark indices. Need-to-have information for financial services industry. Very high margins, very scalable, diversified. 70% of revenue is recurring. Acquisition synergies are finally being realized. Yield is 0.83%.

(Analysts’ price target is $490.00)