HOLD

Not a lot of competition, CNR is the only similar competitor. Barrier to competing is nearly insurmountable. Not founder-run, founder-own. Excellent job compounding shareholder wealth over the long term. Strong company, wide moat, expect 10-15% compounding long term.

DON'T BUY

He's looked at it and it's done a fairly good job. Would much prefer ENGH or CSU. And CSU is the clear market leader of companies that rely on acquisitions to drive growth.

COMMENT
What to do with a stock that goes down every day?

If you have a stock that "goes down every day", and this is a high-quality, predictable stock, you should be getting excited, smiling, rubbing your hands together. Because the lower the stock, the higher the forward return, as long as you can predict that earnings will be higher in the future.

Often when he comes on BNN, there's disappointment that he offers stocks that are down. Well yes, they're on sale! Who doesn't like a sale? Focus on the fundamentals of the business, and the stock price second.

WAIT

Semiconductor space is quite cyclical, so earnings won't necessarily be going up every single year at a consistent clip. At mercy of overall economy. ROE averaged between 22-30% over last 15 years, very strong return profile. Risk is geopolitical, difficult to quantify. Berkshire, for example, has sold its position.

Stock's gone parabolic, cause for pause or reassessment. At 26x PE, not incredibly expensive. Look to add 20% below where it is right now.

DON'T BUY

Sold because its ROIC returns started to get a bit wonky. In fact in last 3 years, ROIC has been negative. Satellite internet access has eaten the lunch of fibre. Hard to form a moat around its domain business. Wait for ROIC to be in excess of 20% for at least 3 years in a row.

An excellent example of deciding to move on from a position when the returns start to falter or go negative. And if there's no identifiable moat, it's a reason to exit.

WATCH
PANW vs. FTNT vs. CHKP

He used to own CHKP. Both PANW and FTNT are strong businesses, market leaders in the space and taking market share away from CHKP.

Challenge is that PANW and FTNT are really strong in this industry. Good for the consumer, but may not be good for the businesses in that space. At 46x PE, PANW is really expensive, growth needed to justify that valuation is substantial, high valuation keeps him on the sidelines.

Look at the space as a whole to see if you want to be involved, rather than choosing just one player. Does like the aspect of customer "stickiness" in that once a customer signs up, switching costs are high.

WATCH
PANW vs. FTNT vs. CHKP

He used to own CHKP. Both PANW and FTNT are strong businesses, market leaders in the space and taking market share away from CHKP.

Challenge is that PANW and FTNT are really strong in this industry. Good for the consumer, but may not be good for the businesses in that space. At 46x PE, PANW is really expensive, growth needed to justify that valuation is substantial, high valuation keeps him on the sidelines.

Look at the space as a whole to see if you want to be involved, rather than choosing just one player. Does like the aspect of customer "stickiness" in that once a customer signs up, switching costs are high.

WATCH
PANW vs. FTNT vs. CHKP

He used to own CHKP. Both PANW and FTNT are strong businesses, market leaders in the space and taking market share away from CHKP.

Challenge is that PANW and FTNT are really strong in this industry. Good for the consumer, but may not be good for the businesses in that space. At 46x PE, PANW is really expensive, growth needed to justify that valuation is substantial, high valuation keeps him on the sidelines.

Look at the space as a whole to see if you want to be involved, rather than choosing just one player. Does like the aspect of customer "stickiness" in that once a customer signs up, switching costs are high.

SELL

He sold and put proceeds back into CSU, the mother ship. Reasons included CSU still owning part of the spinoff. So when you own CSU, you still own part of TOI and LMN. Plus, analysis became simpler. CSU will probably do further spinoffs.

Now, stock price of CSU is high if you aren't awash in funds. His kids collect bottles and cans for extra money, and they can afford and own TOI shares, but not CSU. They eat their own cooking in the Del Vicario family ;)

SELL

He sold and put proceeds back into CSU, the mother ship. Reasons included CSU still owning part of the spinoff. So when you own CSU, you still own part of TOI and LMN. Plus, analysis became simpler. CSU will probably do further spinoffs.

Now, stock price of CSU is high if you aren't awash in funds. His kids collect bottles and cans for extra money, and they can afford and own TOI shares, but not CSU. They eat their own cooking in the Del Vicario family ;)

TOP PICK

Technically, the largest casino in the world. Provides online backbone for land-based casinos and online casinos. Based in Sweden. Founder run and owned. Trading at 19x PE. Strong moat, in part because product quality is so high.

No debt. Margins are some of the highest he's ever seen, in 60% range. Growing earnings rapidly in 20-30% range, though that's come down a bit from 40%. A 4% weighting for his portfolio. (Price target is in Swedish krona.) Yield is 2.7%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1479.13)
TOP PICK

Flies under the radar for many investors. Started in 1982 with 1 convenience store in Laval. Now 14-15K stores across the world. Excellent operations in Canada, US, Europe, Asia. Industry still quite fragmented, so still long runway for acquisitions. Marries operational excellence with capital allocation. Yield is 0.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $86.21)
TOP PICK

Doesn't have much competition. Stock price is below 15x PE, a good buying opportunity. Founder run and owned. No debt. High and consistent ROIC. Significant barriers to competitors. 15M users. Database of spam numbers and emails. Yields over 2%. 

Small company, so he's sized his position accordingly at 1.5% weight. Excellent value at these levels. Expects it to grow earnings at 10-15% over the long term. That, combined with valuation, means forward returns should be very strong.

COMMENT

Believes interest rates will remain "higher for longer" in USA. Expecting interest rate cut in 4th quarter (USA) - at the earliest. Since employment is strong, and inflation is sticky - there will not be an interest rate cut (USA). Canada on the other hand, may get an interest rate cut earlier. Mortgage's are renewing faster in Canada which (among other reasons), will be more reason to cut rates (as early as June). Generally speaking, not too positive on Canadian banks. Falling interest rates mean weakness in consumers (not good for banks). Will wait for more weakness in Canadian banks before buying. 

COMMENT

Has been on the market for ~10 years. Average total return(annually) is 10%. Believes is a great product, and would recommend buying for the long term investor. Some of the best dividend companies are from Europe. Owns in portfolio.